Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 032339
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
437 PM MST SAT SEP 3 2005

AZC025-040100-
YAVAPAI AZ-
437 PM MST SAT SEP 3 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM MST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 433 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER EXTREME 
SOUTHEAST YAVAPAI COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR AND RAIN GAGE MEASUREMENTS 
INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH SOME 
AREAS OVER 3 INCHES SINCE 345 PM MST. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL MOVE
SOUTH OUT OF YAVAPAI COUNTY BY 500 PM MST.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BUMBLE BEE
AND MUCH OF THE CAVE CREEK COMPLEX BURN AREA.

FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER THE CAVE CREEK BURN AREA. THIS 
INCLUDES THE UPPER REACHES OF NEW RIVER AND CAVE CREEK...AS WELL AS
SQUAW CREEK AND LIME CREEK.

IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN 
DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT 
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3405 11219 3399 11181 3409 11169 3423 11223

$$

JJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST SAT SEP 03 2005

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GRADUALLY REDUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE PROGRESSING IN A
NORTHEASTERLY FASHION AT ABOUT 5 TO 15 MPH. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT
THIS TIME PRODUCING FAIRLY DECENT 88D ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES FROM
SOME OF THE STORMS...BUT NO ADVERSE REPORTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS OF
YET. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST TOMORROW...WHICH WILL MEAN MORE
MONSOONAL ACTION ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AT THIS TIME...PROVIDING THE STATE WITH A
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE TO THE
WEST AND IS FORECAST TO POSITION ITSELF OVER THE NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO BORDER BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A TRANSITION TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND A
SLOW BUT METHODICAL DECREASE TO THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND...COUPLED WITH WEAK IMPULSES THAT WILL TRAVERSE WITHIN THE
FLOW...THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY MID-WEEK...A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE AREA COULD SEE MORE DRYING LATER IN
THE WEEK. CK

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...CURRENT TAFS ADEQUATELY DEPICT
CURRENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER AVIATION. DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS. DL

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SAT SEP 3 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-040700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
945 AM MST SAT SEP 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE MORNING...THEN FORM
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING THE MOST
ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THE
EVENING. STORMS WILL TEND TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT-LIVED. THE PRIMARY THREAT
TODAY WILL BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS FILLING DRY WASHES AND
LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND POSSIBLY CAUSING URBAN STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY...BRINGING DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND LOWER THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...IT WILL ALSO
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MORE INTENSE STORMS AS IT ENTERS
THE REGION...MAINLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.