Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF
230 PM MST WED JAN 12 2005

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SW FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TIME TO TIME BUT
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE...
RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ARE DECREASING ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTERLY MOVEMENT INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PRODUCE A NW TO W
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CAUGHT IN THE FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. HGTS RISE
ONLY SLOWLY SO TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY SLOWLY. LOOKING FOR
COLD NIGHTS WITH DAYTIME MAXES INCHING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO THE SW OF THE STATE. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN POOR SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS ATTM.
WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL WITH PC SKIES.

THE FLOOD WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON. AUTOMATED GAUGES
SHOWED ALL STREAMS AND RIVERS BELOW BANKFULL WITH WATER LEVELS
CONTINUING TO FALL. A CHECK WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS INDICATED
NO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. DF

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST WED JAN 12 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-131400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
700 AM MST WED JAN 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE PACIFIC STORM THAT PRODUCED DAYS OF RAIN AND SNOW HAS EXITED TO
THE EAST...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY. STREAM AND RIVER FLOWS REMAIN HIGH IN MANY LOCATIONS AND A FEW
LOCATIONS ON OAK CREEK AND VERDE RIVER ARE AT BANKFUL. SEE PRODUCT
PHXFLSFGZ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.