Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 150045
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
540 PM MST SUN AUG 14 2005

AZC025-150115-
YAVAPAI AZ-
540 PM MST SUN AUG 14 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 615 PM MST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 535 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF CAVE CREEK BURN AREA. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND 
DEBRIS FLOWS ON SMALL CREEKS AND WASHES. CREEKS WITHIN THE AFFECTED 
AREA BUT NOT LIMITED TO ARE BISHOP CREEK...SILVER CREEK AND TANK 
CREEK.  

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. 
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE 
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS 
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY 
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3410 11192 3417 11182 3435 11189 3426 11212
      3416 11212

$$
TC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SUN AUG 14 2005

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON A DAILY BASIS
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. DRIER
AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY MID-WEEK WITH A
DECREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SW NM THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE CWA.
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP ALONG THE RIM WITH STORM
MOVEMENT TO THE SW. ELSEWHERE JUST SPOTTY CONVECTION SO FAR.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT SO EXPECT PRECIP WONT
SHUTDOWN COMPLETELY THIS EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...SEE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIR MASS WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE
REGION. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR MOST
AREAS. A DRYING TREND STILL SEEN DURING THE WEEK AS PERSISTENT TROF
OFF CA COAST BRINGS A DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE STATE. LINGERING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON CU OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH A ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE WEEK THE BERMUDA
HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. GFS ATTM NOT SHOWING A LARGE INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO STATE. FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN PC SKIES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. DF

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z PACKAGE...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DEPICT
CURRENT WEATHER. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SUN AUG 14 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-150700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
930 AM MST SUN AUG 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY.
LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY NOON AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING. WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM
...WHITE MOUNTAINS...YAVAPAI COUNTY...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY. SOME
OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM TODAYS STORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. BY MID-WEEK
HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...LEADING TO
AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.