Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
210 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SLOWED SURFACE
HEATING AND CONVECTION TODAY. VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY IS NOTED ATTM.
EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MORE SURFACE HEATING AND
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FOR
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A MOIST
SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS CROSS THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND PUSHES INLAND ACROSS THE SRN
GREAT BASIN AND NRN AZ. CHANCES OF PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. BY
WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE NRN HALF OF AZ
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE BOUNDARY OF THE DRIER AIR AND
THE MOIST AIR COULD BE WHERE SEVERE STORMS FORM. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE OUT FOR THIS INTERACTION. BY THURSDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE
BACK OVER THE ENTIRE STATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MAS
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENT.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN JUL 24 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-250700-
COCONINO PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
1000 AM MST SUN JUL 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR...APACHE...NAVAJO...NORTHERN
GILA...YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3
PM IN NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. RAIN COOLED GROUND AND CLOUDINESS WILL
SLOW SURFACE HEATING TODAY. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE WILL SEE A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THAT
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.