Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Grand Forks, ND

September 5, 2005Clay County, Wilkin County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 5, 2005, 8:13 PM CDT for Clay County, Wilkin County, Minnesota. It was in force for 62 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Sep 5, 2005, 8:13 PM CDT (01:13 UTC)
Expired: Sep 5, 2005, 9:15 PM CDT
In force: 62 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Clay County, MN, Wilkin County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Sep 5, 8:30 PM CDT	HAIL 1	7 S Hawley, MN	SOFT DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH STRONG WINDS.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 17 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 5, 3:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 254 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 239 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -42 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1970 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -14 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 060113
SVRFGF
MNC027-167-060215-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0251.050906T0113Z-050906T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
813 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
  NORTHERN WILKIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT.

* AT 811 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
  IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR GLYNDON TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRECKENRIDGE...
  MOVING TO THE EAST AT 35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  EVERDELL AND BARNESVILLE AT 820 PM
  MUSKODA AND LAWNDALE AT 825 PM
  HAWLEY AND FOXHOME AT 830 PM
  DALE AND ROLLAG AT 835 PM

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4713 9680 4623 9655 4624 9630 4664 9633
      4665 9620 4713 9621

$$

JCA/GJG

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 060128
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
828 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2005

MNC027-167-060215-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-050906T0215Z/
CLAY MN-WILKIN MN-
828 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN WILKIN AND CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 824 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTH OF MUSKODA TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
EVERDELL...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 35 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DALE...HITTERDAL...FOXHOME AND ROLLAG BY 835 PM CDT...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4713 9680 4623 9655 4624 9630 4664 9633
      4665 9620 4713 9621

$$

JCA/GJG

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 060212
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
912 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2005

MNC027-167-060222-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-050906T0215Z/
CLAY MN-WILKIN MN-
912 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WILKIN AND CLAY
COUNTIES EXPIRED AT 915 PM CDT...

AT 912 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF CLAY AND
NORTHERN WILKIN COUNTIES. SO THE WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 915
PM CDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4713 9680 4623 9655 4624 9630 4664 9633
      4665 9620 4713 9621

$$

JCA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 5, 2:55 PM CDT, 5 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 5, 2:55 PM CDT, 5 hours 18 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
255 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2005

.SHORT...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. WHEN LOOKING AT
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN
CENTRAL SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH AREA ALONG A JMS TO
GFK TO HCO LINE. LATEST KMVX IMAGES SHOW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO E
ND FROM CENTRAL ND AND SOME STORMS STILL LINGERING OVER WC MN. WHEN
COMPARING MODELS...GFS AND ETA IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH CAP
ERODING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GOOD INSTABILITY...A NICE THETA-E
RIDGE...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA AND A MYRIAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL...SO KEPT
HIGH POPS...SEVERE...AND HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ON TUE...COLD FRONT IS STILL EXITING...SO LEFT A CHANCE
FOR MORNING THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR PART OF NW MN. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WED NIGHT.

BY THU...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES E OF THE AREA AND S-SE
RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED
LIFT TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THU.

LONG TERM (FRI THROUGH MON)....MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AN
AMPLIFIED W CONUS TROUGH BUT DISAGREE WITH MAGNITUDE. THIS PLACES N
PLAINS IN SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN.
HOWEVER...TREND IS TOWARD AN EXTREMELY DEEP TROUGH WHICH WOULD TEND
TO KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES W OF FORECAST AREA WITH FLOW ALOFT MORE
S THAN SW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER FOR FRI BEFORE W TROUGH REALLY
DEEPENS...THEN KEEP REMAINDER OF EXTENDED DRY. 12Z GFS HINTING AT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MON...BUT WILL AWAIT FURTHER MODEL RUNS BEFORE
INTRODUCING ANYTHING. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH THUNDER CHANCES. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE
EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

NG/TG

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 5, 7:01 AM CDT, 13 hours 12 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2005

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-061215-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
701 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT A TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD AND INTO MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

GV

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 5, 5:05 PM CDT, 3 hours 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
505 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             1 W ROSEVILLE           47.44N 97.41W
09/05/2005  0.88 INCH        TRAILL             ND   PUBLIC

&&

DK

Local storm report, Sep 5, 6:00 PM CDT, 2 hours 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
600 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             4 N VALLEY CITY         46.98N 98.01W
09/05/2005  1.00 INCH        BARNES             ND   PUBLIC

&&

DK

Local storm report, Sep 5, 6:04 PM CDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
604 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             4 SW HOPE               47.28N 97.78W
09/05/2005  0.75 INCH        STEELE             ND   PUBLIC

&&

DK

Local storm report, Sep 5, 6:30 PM CDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
630 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     HAIL             HILLSBORO               47.40N 97.06W
09/05/2005  0.75 INCH        TRAILL             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MEWENS

Local storm report, Sep 5, 7:41 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
741 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             1 S CASSELTON           46.89N 97.21W
09/05/2005  0.88 INCH        CASS               ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL THROUGH 718 PM AT I-94 AND HWY
            18 INTERSECTION.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Sep 5, 8:03 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
803 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     WEST FARGO              46.87N 96.90W
09/05/2005                   CASS               ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GGUST

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 5, 7:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clay	58 min
Sep 5, 7:11 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Clay	45 min
Sep 5, 8:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Clearwater, Mahnomen, Polk	55 min
Sep 5, 8:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Otter Tail	59 min
Sep 5, 8:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Norman	57 min
Sep 5, 9:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Clearwater, Hubbard	53 min
Sep 5, 9:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Wadena	58 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2005 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.