Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 080536
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1236 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2005

NDC027-080615-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-050708T0615Z/
EDDY ND-
1236 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 115 AM CDT FOR EDDY
COUNTY...

AT 1231 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF SHEYENNE TO 7 MILES EAST
OF NEW ROCKFORD TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRANTFORD...MOVING TO THE
EAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY AT 1250 AM CDT
  RURAL EASTERN EDDY COUNTY AT 100 AM CDT

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4784 9907 4761 9917 4762 9855 4783 9856

$$
GV/JDS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
850 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MB AND A FEW
SOUTHWEST OF MINOT BUT MORE WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP TO REACH TOWNER
OR BENSON COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEY APPEAR TO REQUIRE THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AVAILABLE NEAR THE TROUGH STILL WEST
OF BIS/N60/MOT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. ONCE STORMS
DEVELOP THEY HAVE TURNED INTO MONSTERS ESPECIALLY WHEN VIEWED BY
SATELLITE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR TOWNER/BENSON TO CONTINUE
AS THIS AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY PRODUCED SOME. DEW POINTS AT ROLLA
AND RUGBY ARE WELL INTO THE 70S AND FIGURE THEY WILL LIKELY GET
THERE. RAISED POPS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST ND TO LIKELY BY MIDNIGHT.
ZONES/GRIDS OTHERWISE LOOK GOOD AND LITTLE NEEDED TO ADJUST ATTM.
GV
--------------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

.SHORT...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH W ND. WHEN COMPARING MODELS...THE MODELS
ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...
THE 12Z ETA INITIALIZED BETTER...SO USED THE ETA SOLUTION FOR
TONIGHT...AND THEN WENT WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. SURFACE TROF DRIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO
CENTRAL ND BY 12Z FRI. WITH 700MB CAP INCREASING OVER W ND
TONIGHT...65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS POOLING IN CENTRAL ND...AND A GOOD S
RETURN FLOW OVER E ND...ANTICIPATE STORMS TO GET GOING THIS EVENING
W OF THE AREA AND THEN MOVE E-SE OVERNIGHT. WITH A GOOD VEERING
PROFILE...PLENTY OF AVAILABLE CAPE AND A THETA-E RIDGE IN PLACE...
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

THE SURFACE LOW WASHES OUT ON FRI AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SAT MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.
WITH THE 500MB RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...NO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED...WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
DOMINATING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS
FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70...PUSHING HEAT INDICES TO AROUND
100 IN THE S PORTION OF THE AREA SAT AND SUN EVENINGS.

LONG TERM (MON THROUGH THU)...A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE SUN/EARLY MON AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES TO OUR E. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUE BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE TO OUR W STRENGTHENS AND SLOWLY
SHIFTS E BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BEING ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE
SUBJECTS US TO A REFRESHING CANADIAN AIRMASS...BUT ALSO GIVES US THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE RIDING MCSS FROM THE NW. RIGHT NOW PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SO I CONTINUED WITH THE DRY FORECAST ALREADY IN PLACE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR PEMBINA COUNTY UNTIL 18Z FRI. RIVER
     FLOOD WARNING FOR ABERCROMBIE.
MN...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR KITTSON COUNTY UNTIL 18Z FRI.

&&

NG/JCA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
633 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2005

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081132-
BARNES ND-BENSON ND-CASS ND-CAVALIER ND-CLAY MN-EAST BECKER MN-
EAST MARSHALL MN-EAST OTTER TAIL MN-EAST POLK MN-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-EDDY ND-GRAND FORKS ND-GRANT MN-GRIGGS ND-
HUBBARD MN-KITTSON MN-LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-MAHNOMEN MN-NELSON ND-
NORMAN MN-NORTH BELTRAMI MN-NORTH CLEARWATER MN-PEMBINA ND-
PENNINGTON MN-RAMSEY ND-RANSOM ND-RED LAKE MN-RICHLAND ND-ROSEAU MN-
SARGENT ND-SOUTH BELTRAMI MN-SOUTH CLEARWATER MN-STEELE ND-TOWNER ND-
TRAILL ND-WADENA MN-WEST BECKER MN-WEST MARSHALL MN-
WEST OTTER TAIL MN-WEST POLK MN-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-WILKIN MN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEMIDJI...DETROIT LAKES...DEVILS LAKE...
FARGO...FERGUS FALLS...GRAFTON...GRAND FORKS...LANGDON...ROSEAU...
THIEF RIVER FALLS...VALLEY CITY AND WAHPETON
633 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2005

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR MAINLY EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE AFTER 7 PM ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AREAS UNDER THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY PICK UP AN INCH OF RAIN. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT THE
FOLLOWING URL. WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS      USING LOWER CASE

VOELKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ND
656 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2005

NDZ006-014-080700-
BENSON ND-TOWNER ND-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 623
IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

BENSON                TOWNER

GV