Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
421 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CA YESTERDAY IS
NOW OVER SOUTHERN CO MOVING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS OVER
UT MOVING NORTHEAST. GFS CLOSES OFF UPPER LOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WHILE NAM CLOSES OFF LATE WED EVENING. SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY BY
9MB IN 12 HOURS WED NIGHT ON THE NAM LESS SO WITH THE GFS.  GFS
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL BE
USED. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS CAPPED FROM WESTERN SD
SOUTHWARD. ABR LOW LEVEL 40 KNOTS VAD WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE
SOUTHERLY AND HAVE INCREASED IN DEPTH TO AROUND 9 THOUSAND FEET THIS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET CONCENTRATES ON SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING THEN SHIFTS INTO EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. 850 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDED INTO CENTRAL ND THIS MORNING AND SHIFTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE ACTIVE DAY WITH
SEVERE STORM THAT WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

HEAVY RAIN REMAINS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHWEST ZONES
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. STILL EXPECT
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER NORTHWEST ZONES IN DEFORMATION AREA.

.LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

HOPPES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
714 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-301200-
BARNES ND-BENSON ND-CASS ND-CAVALIER ND-CLAY MN-EAST BECKER MN-
EAST MARSHALL MN-EAST OTTER TAIL MN-EAST POLK MN-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-EDDY ND-GRAND FORKS ND-GRANT MN-GRIGGS ND-
HUBBARD MN-KITTSON MN-LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-MAHNOMEN MN-NELSON ND-
NORMAN MN-NORTH BELTRAMI MN-NORTH CLEARWATER MN-PEMBINA ND-
PENNINGTON MN-RAMSEY ND-RANSOM ND-RED LAKE MN-RICHLAND ND-ROSEAU MN-
SARGENT ND-SOUTH BELTRAMI MN-SOUTH CLEARWATER MN-STEELE ND-TOWNER ND-
TRAILL ND-WADENA MN-WEST BECKER MN-WEST MARSHALL MN-
WEST OTTER TAIL MN-WEST POLK MN-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-WILKIN MN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEMIDJI...DETROIT LAKES...DEVILS LAKE...
FARGO...FERGUS FALLS...GRAFTON...GRAND FORKS...LANGDON...ROSEAU...
THIEF RIVER FALLS...VALLEY CITY AND WAHPETON
714 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND THIS EVENING

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE NORTH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT THE
FOLLOWING URL. WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS      USING LOWER CASE

HOPPES