Severe Thunderstorm Warning 405, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
359 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

.SHORT TERM...
KATRINA PULLING AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO CWA AS IT
SPIRALS NORTHWARD. THE HIGH LIFTED INDICES AND HELICITY IN THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF CWA OFFERS THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OVER THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED FLOW OF MOISTURE
AND ESPECIALLY THE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...A DRIER AIR
MASS STARTS WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHING SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOL AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         83  72  82  72 /  90  90  60  40
ATHENS          85  73  80  71 /  90  90  50  40
GAINESVILLE     80  70  78  70 /  90  90  70  40
ROME            84  76  82  73 /  90  90  90  40
COLUMBUS        85  75  88  75 /  90  80  40  40
MACON           87  77  88  74 /  90  70  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR GAZ001-GAZ002-
GAZ003-GAZ004-GAZ005-GAZ006-GAZ007-GAZ008-GAZ009-GAZ011-GAZ012-
GAZ013-GAZ014-GAZ015-GAZ016-GAZ019-GAZ020-GAZ021-GAZ022-GAZ023-
GAZ024-GAZ025-GAZ027-GAZ030-GAZ031-GAZ032-GAZ033-GAZ034-GAZ035-
GAZ036-GAZ037-GAZ041-GAZ042-GAZ043-GAZ044-GAZ045-GAZ046-GAZ047-
GAZ048-GAZ049-GAZ052-GAZ053-GAZ054-GAZ055-GAZ056-GAZ057-GAZ058-
GAZ059-GAZ066-GAZ067-GAZ068-GAZ069-GAZ070-GAZ071-GAZ078-GAZ079-
GAZ080-GAZ081-GAZ089-GAZ090-GAZ091-GAZ102.

&&

37

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
625 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-301025-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
625 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE KATRINA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST
NEAR NEW ORLEANS THIS MORNING. AS KATRINA MOVES NORTH INTO LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI OUTER SPIRAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO MOVE NORTH THROUGH GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PERIODS OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BEST TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE IS INCREASING OVER THE AREA WITH KATRINA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST NEAR NEW ORLEANS THIS
MORNING. WHILE GEORGIA ITSELF IS NOT IN THE BEST AREA FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL BASED ON TYPICAL PARAMETERS...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED CONVECTIVE FEEDER BAND DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS BAND HAS PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY VALUES
OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE RAIN RECEIVED IN JULY AND AUGUST
THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONGLY ROTATING IN THE
RAIN BANDS CLOSER TO KATRINAS CENTER. THERE IS ALSO SOME LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IN PLACE AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OF THIS STORM THE THREAT FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS THERE. THE BEST PLACE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY INDICES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
CAPES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 RANGE AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND MINUS 2 TO
MINUS 3. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
GEORGIA AS THE RAIN BANDS WILL SPAN ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THINGS SHOULD START
CLEARING OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
420 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

GAZ042-052-292045-

420 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING FOR NORTHERN HEARD AND CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 415 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRALHATCHEE...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ROTATION AND MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN MAY BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES AND WEAK OBJECTS IN THE AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

RAB