Severe Thunderstorm Warning 386, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

.SHORT TERM...
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE IS
ALLOWING CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES TODAY...
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...
ALLOWING HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB TO OVER 100 DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 IN THE
ZONES...BUT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES STILL DROPPING BELOW 75...
CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY. 850 TEMPERATURES HOVER
AROUND 20C FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WHILE TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY NOT BE AS HIGH AS TODAY OR MONDAY...WE CAN STILL
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THE GFS WANTS TO BRING THE FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS PROGS ARE ENHANCED BY SPURIOUS LATENT
HEAT BOMBS SPREAD INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS THE FRONT...THUS AM HESITANT
TO BITE OFF ON THIS SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE MEAN LAYER RH AND AN END TO THE DIURNAL SIGNAL OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...ALBEIT
NOT AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
IN EITHER CASE...SO FOR THE MOST PART CONTINUED THE TREND OF DIURNAL
POPS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ON THURSDAY UNTIL EITHER UPSTREAM
ANALYSES CONFIRM A DECISION OR THE MODELS MAKE UP THEIR MINDS.

.LONG TERM...
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS INDICATED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE 00Z RUNS...FRONTAL PASSAGE OR NO...MOST LIKELY WE WILL
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES THAT ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL. HOWEVER...ON THE
HEELS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MIDWEEK...A LARGER AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS PROGS THIS SYSTEM TO BARREL ITS WAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A COOLING TREND INDICATED BEHIND A STRONG FRONT AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OF COURSE...WHAT IMPACT IF ANY THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE ON GEORGIA REMAINS TO BE SEEN THAT FAR OUT...AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY REFLECTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN. CAN EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. VSBY HAVE BEEN
UP AND DOWN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THEY HAVE BEEN 6SM OR
ABOVE AT ATL. WILL SEE VSBYS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND TSRA.
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH 15Z-16Z AS CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING BACK UP AROUND 16Z
TO 18Z. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY OUT OF THE W TO NW AROUND 4 TO 8KT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         92  73  91  73 /  30  20  40  20
ATHENS          93  73  92  72 /  30  20  40  20
GAINESVILLE     91  71  89  70 /  30  30  40  30
ROME            96  74  94  73 /  30  30  40  30
COLUMBUS        95  76  94  75 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  75  94  75 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

&&

TDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
845 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-171000-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
845 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY. LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE AS
WELL.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 2 INCHES. THE BEST TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
WITH TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA...NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO PREVAIL TODAY WITH CAPES NEAR
1000 AND LIFTED INDICES IN THE MINUS 2 TO MINUS 3 RANGE. THIS WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
132 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

GAZ053-161815-

132 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN COWETA COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 131 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NEWNAN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
COWETA COUNTY. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MADRAS...THOMAS CROSSROADS...SHARPSBURG...NEWNAN...MORELAND AND
GRANTVILLE.  BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY 215 PM EDT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

GAZ044-055-161815-

137 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN CLAYTON AND
SOUTHERN FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 131 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RIVERDALE THE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CLAYTON AND SOUTHERN FULTON COUNTIES. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE RIVERDALE...FOREST PARK...HAPEVILLE...COLLEGE
PARK...EAST POINT...AND HARTSFIELD JACKSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY 215 PM EDT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

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