Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
515 AM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

.SHORT TERM...
PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. UPR LOW
NOW ON A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN AL AND NWRN
GA LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY PUT GREATEST RISK AREA OVER CENTRAL GA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 06Z ETA12 SHOWS 40-45KT 850MB WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GA AFTER 00Z WITH AT LEAST 30KTS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NEW ETA12
ALSO SHOWING VERY HIGH INSTABILITY WITH BL BASED LI OF -4 TO -8
ALONG A WIDE SWATH FROM NORTH OF COLUMBUS TO NORTH OF AUGUSTA THIS
AFTERNOON DECREASING DURING THE EVENING...BUT NOT BY MUCH.

WILL PROBABLY KEEP SCT SVR EXPECTED THREAT ACROSS ALL OF CWA IN HWO
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT LOCATION OF BEST CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY...BUT FEEL HIGHEST THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL GA DUE TO REASONS LISTED IN PRECEDING
PARAGRAPH.  THREAT FOR SVR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT
QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT AS SFC AND 850MB WINDS
VEER TO SWLY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SWEPT AWAY.

KEPT CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS GOING IN THE NORTH ON MONDAY TAPERING DOWN
TO SLT CHC FURTHER SOUTH AS WRAPAROUND LINGERS. LOOKS GOOD THROUGH
MID WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE THURS AND FRI. DGEX STILL A
LITTLE FASTER THAN GFS. CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS ALSO AGREE ON
BRINGING POSITIVELY-TILTED SYSTEM AND SFC LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 40 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION. IFR THE
BEST BET EARLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAFS DUE TO ENE SURFACE FLOW BEING
WELL N OF THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY. MOST VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
SHOWERS OR STORMS. ENE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SSE LATER TODAY.
EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         69  48  57  46 /  90  80  20  10
ATHENS          69  50  58  44 /  90  80  30  20
GAINESVILLE     65  48  59  44 /  90  90  30  20
ROME            73  54  62  40 /  90  90  30  20
COLUMBUS        75  51  61  47 /  90  50  10  10
MACON           73  54  63  45 /  90  60  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

&&

13-SNELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1224 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1224 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
   ISOLATED TORNADOES...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY MORNING.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BEST TIME FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES
FOR POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 2000
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -9 ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING
DEEP LAYERED WINDS TO GIVE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST GEORGIA...SPREADING
EAST BY THIS EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER BY
LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GEORGIA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE LATE THIS WEEK.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1238 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

GAZ081-082-271815-

1238 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN CRAWFORD AND BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EST...

AT 1235 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MACON TO SOUTHWEST OF PAYNE...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS HAVE INDICATED NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THESE STORMS. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD
STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND CORDED TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT
BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. THE THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 115 PM EST.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

GAZ069-079-080-271815-

1242 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN TAYLOR...TALBOT AND UPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EST...

AT 1239 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND JUNCTION CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE PRATTSBURG AND
THOMASTON.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS HAVE INDICATED NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS STORM. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY
INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND CORDED TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE
USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. THE THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH BY 115 PM EST.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
136 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

GAZ078-089-271900-

136 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN MUSCOGEE AND HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EST...

AT 132 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS HAVE INDICATED NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS STORM. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY
INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND CORDED TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE
USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. THE THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH BY 200 PM EST.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
148 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PLAINS                  32.03N 84.39W
03/27/2005                   SUMTER             GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER OUTAGE, SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES.

0430 AM     TSTM WND DMG     AMERICUS                32.07N 84.23W
03/27/2005                   SUMTER             GA   AIRPLANE PILOT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADS.

0430 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LUMPKIN                 32.05N 84.80W
03/27/2005                   STEWART            GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            911 REPORTED FEW TREES DOWN IN EAST STEWART COUNTY.

&&

FFCUSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLOOD            COCHRAN                 32.39N 83.35W
03/27/2005                   BLECKLEY           GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FOX NEWS 24 REPORTED STREET FLOODING IN COCHRAN.

1150 AM     HAIL             HAWKINSVILLE            32.28N 83.47W
03/27/2005  0.25 INCH        PULASKI            GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            911 REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL IN PARTS OF THE COUNTY, IN
            AREAS NEAR HAWKINSVILLE.

1140 AM     HAIL             VIENNA                  32.09N 83.79W
03/27/2005  0.75 INCH        DOOLY              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            911 REPORTED DIME AND PENNY SIZE HAIL 5 NE VIENNA.

&&

FFCUSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LUMPKIN                 32.05N 84.80W
03/27/2005                   STEWART            GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LUMPKIN/RICHLAND POLICE REPORTED SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED
            IN THE RICHLAND AREA.

&&

FFCUSR