Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS EYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CLOUDY. WINDS OVER
LAND ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 20 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S. ONLY ABOUT FIVE DEGREES OF COOLING
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WELL SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM ARLENE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA SOMETIME
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE KEYS...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM ARLENE SHOULD TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE KEYS. TROPICAL
STORM ARLENE SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE...AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE GFS NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUNDAY. THE GFS NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE THEN DEPICTS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS
IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND INTO THE
BAHAMAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THIS SOLUTION
WILL BE IGNORED. THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED
CLOSER TO THE NAM NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTION OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...BUT NOT AS STRONG OF A RIDGE AS THE
NAM NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF
THE MARQUESAS KEYS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIODS. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST WILL CONTAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS...BUT THIS COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ROUTE.
PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OF THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN RAINBANDS MOVE
ACROSS THE KMTH AND KEYW ISLAND TERMINALS.

SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE KEYW
TERMINAL AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT THE KMTH TERMINAL. WIND GUSTS OVER 35
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WHEN PLANNING YOUR FLIGHT...PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST TERMINAL
FORECASTS....OBSERVATIONS...AND SIGMETS/AIRMETS. YOUR PIREPS ARE
APPRECIATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79 86 80 88 / 80 60 40 40
MARATHON  77 87 80 89 / 80 60 40 40

&&

.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS
 WATERS...GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075.
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING...GMZ075.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE/DIGITAL...............BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/WARNINGS..........DAF
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION..........MP/TT
HLS/TROPICAL WEATHER COORDINATOR....AD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
830 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005

FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-101000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM-
EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
WEST END OF 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM-
830 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS.
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING
STRIKES...WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS...AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR INCREASING WINDS. BY TONIGHT...EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER MARINE LOCATIONS AND
NEAR 20 MPH OVER ISLAND LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THEREAFTER. STRONG WINDS FRIDAY
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GIVE WAY TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AS TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE MOVES AWAY FROM THE KEYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
600 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005

FLZ076>078-100300-
MONROE LOWER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE UPPER KEYS-
600 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005

...OCCASIONAL SQUALLS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
IMPACT THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

OCCASIONAL SQUALLS...ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO TONIGHT.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. BE
ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS WHEN CROSSING BRIDGES...AS WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
ALONG THE ELEVATED EXPOSED BRIDGE SPANS. THE STRONGER SQUALLS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO BELOW ONE MILE AND GENERATE MODERATE STREET
FLOODING. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE MINOR SALT WATER
OVERWASH ALONG ROADWAYS WITH AN ATLANTIC EXPOSURE...SUCH AS SOUTH
ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD IN KEY WEST...OR THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT.

PLEASE ALLOW EXTRA TIME AND BRAKING DISTANCE...AND REMEMBER...DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

STAY TUNED TO LATER STATEMENTS AND OR WARNINGS ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST-.

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