Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 260555
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005

TXC465-260630-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0214.000000T0000Z-051126T0630Z/
VAL VERDE TX-
1155 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CST
FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY...

AT 1150 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED ALONG FM 2523 ABOUT 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF DEL 
RIO...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 2933 10077 2936 10071 2960 10069 2961 10080

$$

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 260603
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1202 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

TXC465-260612-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0214.000000T0000Z-051126T0630Z/
VAL VERDE TX-
1202 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM ALONG FM 2523 HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. AS 
A RESULT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED. SMALL HAIL 
IS STILL POSSIBLE. 

LAT...LON 2933 10077 2936 10071 2960 10069 2961 10080

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
821 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES STARTED TO DEVELOP EARLIER THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...BUT THERE IS STILL ANTICIPATION THAT A
SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY
SPAWN SOME SUPERCELLS AND HAIL. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON
TRACK SO NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE NECESSARY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 422 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005)

DISCUSSION...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TRENDS OF THE UPPER LOW WERE SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY LOWER LATITUDE AND SLOWER SYSTEM BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE
A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE AND
THIS FORECAST. QPF WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF SAN ANTONIO WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS LIKELY TO FORM OVER
THIS AREA EXTENDING SOUTH TO DEEP SOUTH TX. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE MAINLY FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION,
BUT SUPERCELLS COULD FORM AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS/
SQUALL LINE WHILE DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE SQUALL LINE.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, COOL AIR FROM THE DOWNDRAFTS
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY, BUT WILL TREND SLIGHTLY IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS WHICH NOW SHOWS LIKELY POPS FOR OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. I COULD SEE A FEW DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORMS REFORMING OVER EASTERN COUNTIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS COMPLEX, BUT THE MORE COMPACT ETA QPF PATTERN LOOKS BETTER
HERE.

RED FLAG ISSUES COULD ARISE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS IF WE DONT GET
THIS MUCH NEEDED RAIN. THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDY PATTERN WILL EXPAND EAST TO MOST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. THEN ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WINDS ARE IMPACTED BY DOWNSLOPING.
AFTER THE FRONT, A ZONAL AND SLIGHTLY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILDER DURING MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH REINFORCING COLDER AIR
COMING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ZONAL PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THIS
COLDER AIRMASS WILL LEAVE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR OVERRUNNING
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

25/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1120 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-261145-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
1120 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS GREATER FOR COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FRIDAY NIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.  A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF STATE HIGHWAY 95 LINE...FROM NEAR ELGIN TO NEAR SHINER.
BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST ON SUNDAY MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.