Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 041938
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
235 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

TXC465-042200-
VAL VERDE TX-
235 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR VAL VERDE
COUNTY...

AT 230 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OF 
ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN VAL VERDE COUNTY FROM LOMA ALTA TO 
JUNO TO PANDALE.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN NORTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.  

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER SMALL CREEKS AND 
STREAMS...AND POSSIBLY LOW WATER CROSSINGS OF HIGHWAYS 277 AND 163. 

$$

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 042116
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
415 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

TXC465-042200-
VAL VERDE TX-
415 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR VAL VERDE
COUNTY...

AT 412 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PANDALE...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTHEAST 
OF LANGTRY...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. RAINFALL RATES OF 2.0 TO 2.5 
INCHES AN HOUR WERE ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER RADAR.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LOMA ALTA.

FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED AREAS. A LITTLE
OVER A FOOT OF WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST CARS AND TRUCKS. TURN AROUND
DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 2971 10071 3026 10070 3026 10173 3004 10173

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1026 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH ALOFT IS NORTHWEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND IS
FORECAST TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN
THE MEANTIME...WEAK LARGE SCALE TROF LINGERS ALOFT OVER THE AREA IN
LIGHT WIND FIELD AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS NEXT WEEK...AS SUMMER SUBTROPICAL HIGH SLOWLY EVOLVES OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.

FOR TODAY...500 TO 200 HPA LOW HAS MOVED WEST OF RIO GRANDE...WITH
LARGE SCALE TROF OVER AREA.  HEATING EXPECTED TO CAUSE
WDLY SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON TO PART OF THE
EVENING.  FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW ALOFT CONTINUING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW WDLY SCT MAINLY DAYTIME
TO EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...TREND SHOWS DIMINISHING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AS HIGH SLOWLY FORMS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.  ISOLATE TO WDLY SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE EARLY TO MID
PART OF NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO WEAK LOW ALOFT FCST TO BE EAST OF
SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 656 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2005)

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AS A RESULT, HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE CATEGORY THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2005)

DISCUSSION...
BROAD PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THEN STABILITY INCREASES BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION EXTENDING FROM
MEXICO TO THE TN RIVER VALLEY WITH A SECONDARY ROTATION OVER DRT
TO FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTION FOR TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING THUS WILL
NOT FOCUS POPS OVER THIS AREA TODAY AND INSTEAD SPREAD CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA TO REFLECT GENERAL AIRMASS CONVECTION. THE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO DILUTE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH. THUS WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM GFS GUIDANCE
POPS BUT SHIFT TIMING MORE TO AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER TX TUESDAY AND SUGGEST A RETURN
TO HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEK TO MAKE FOR A WARMING TREND ON OVERNIGHT
TEMPS.

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

08/01/JB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
513 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-051015-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
513 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH MAY CAUSE BRIEF FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.