Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 152232
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
530 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

TXC163-323-507-160000-
FRIO TX-ZAVALA TX-MAVERICK TX-
530 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR MAVERICK...
ZAVALA AND FRIO COUNTIES...

AT 524 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE WARNED COUNTIES. RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE 
BEEN ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER RADAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO THE 
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED COUNTIES BY 6 PM CDT.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE PEARSALL...MOORE...LA PRYOR...FRIO
TOWN...BIG FOOT AND BATESVILLE.

FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED AREAS. A LITTLE
OVER A FOOT OF WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST CARS AND TRUCKS. TURN AROUND
DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 2874 10051 2887 10060 2908 10061 2906 9886
      2871 9882 2866 10051

$$

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 160007
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
705 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

TXC163-323-507-160015-
FRIO TX-ZAVALA TX-MAVERICK TX-
705 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MAVERICK...ZAVALA AND FRIO COUNTIES
EXPIRED AT 700 PM CDT...

HEAVY RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS TRANSITIONED SOUTH AND 
EAST...OUT OF THE PREVIOUSLY WARNED COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THE FLASH 
FLOOD THREAT HAS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN 
WILL CONTINUE. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WATER ON ROADS.

LAT...LON 2874 10051 2887 10060 2908 10061 2906 9886
      2871 9882 2866 10051

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MCS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
SATURDAYS STORMS. MCS IS AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEST OF THE BIG BEND. TROUGH AND MCS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS
AND QPF WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WHERE BOTH MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE IS THE BEST. HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DUE TO RATHER DRY
SOILS, WILL NOT ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH, HOWEVER ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAY OCCUR. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
HAIL APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT
AS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT THEN TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL JET INTO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MAY
GENERATE SOME MORNING DRIZZLE OR STREAMER SHOWERS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. ON THURSDAY, THE
TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
RIDGE BUILDS NORTH FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE ROCKIES. THE
ECMWF AND UKMET WANT TO BRING THE LOW SOUTH INTO TEXAS ON FRIDAY,
THEN STALL IT OVER TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN
BUILD THE RIDGE FURTHER EAST IN TURN KEEPING THE LOW FURTHER EAST.
FOR NOW, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS
GUIDANCE FOR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  81  64  86 /  40  40  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  81  61  86 /  40  40  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  83  65  88 /  60  40  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       62  81  64  85 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

04/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
555 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-161100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
555 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT COMING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
50 MPH...AND SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR MONDAY...
WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THROUGH THE EVENING.  LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 MPH...AND
SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY AND WARM MID TO LATE MAY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  UNSEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THOROUGH SATURDAY...AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.