Flash Flood Warning 108, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 131619
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1118 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2005

TXC271-131845-
KINNEY TX-
1118 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR
KINNEY COUNTY...

AT 1108 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS KINNEY
COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WERE OCCURRING ALONG HIGHWAY 90 BETWEEN
BRACKETTVILLE AND DEL RIO. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BRACKETTVILLE AND ALAMO VILLAGE.

FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED AREAS. A LITTLE
OVER A FOOT OF WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST CARS AND TRUCKS. TURN AROUND
DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 2910 10068 2913 10011 2960 10016 2957 10065

$$

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 131657
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2005

TXC271-131845-
KINNEY TX-
1155 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR
KINNEY COUNTY...

AT 1149 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER KINNEY COUNTY.
RAINFALL RATES ARE ESTIMATED AT 1 INCH AN HOUR.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BRACKETTVILLE ALAMO VILLAGE.

FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED AREAS. A LITTLE
OVER A FOOT OF WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST CARS AND TRUCKS. TURN AROUND
DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 2910 10068 2913 10011 2960 10016 2957 10065

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1022 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
500 TO 300 HPA LOW OVER SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO
THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR
TEMPORARILY DRIFT WEST FRIDAY...BEFORE TURNING TO A SLOW NORTHEAST
TRACK ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 12Z OCT 13 ANALYSIS SHOWS EFFICIENT
WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY.
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THRU PART OF TONIGHT...THEN WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW TO THE WEST DRIFTS FURTHER AWAY...AND
SERIES OF S/W TROFS TO THE NORTH HELP TO AMPLIFY TROF OVER EASTERN
U.S...THAT WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE AMPLIFIED 500 HPA TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS
FORECAST TO CAUSE HIGH ALOFT TO INCREASE OVER WEST GULF OF MEXICO
AND PART OF SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY...AS S/W TROF MOVES VCNTY OF WEST
TX TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

BY SUNDAY HIGH AT 500 HPA FORECAST OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS
AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO COME FROM PACIFIC AND
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN U.S.  THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE ROCKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY.  THIS PATTERN MAY BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE NORTH PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOW
LOW MOVING TO NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WED AND THURSDAY
AND 2ND PROGRESSIVE 500 HPA TROF COMES FROM THE WEST LATE
NEXT WEEK AROUND LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.  FORECASTS SHOW
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR WEEKEND OF OCT 22
AND OCT 23...SIGNALING DRY WEATHER FOR THE AREA.

IN THE MEANTIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAIN WEST PART OF THE AREA TODAY...RAIN THAT MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...AND KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH THERE
THROUGH 400 PM TODAY. WILL EXTEND TO EVENING HOURS
IF MESOSCALE TRENDS SUPPORT CONTINUED LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2005)

DISCUSSION...
HIGH POPS OUT WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY TODAY WHERE PWATS HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCH (ABOUT 150% OF NORMAL). AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CLOSING-OFF OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NE OUT OF MEXICO
OVER WEST TX AND WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF CONVECTION TODAY. HPC
DAY1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS VAL VERDE COUNTY UNDER A
MODERATE RISK AND EDWARDS AND KINNEY COUNTIES UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.
WGRFC FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THOSE
COUNTIES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN RECENT RAIN OUT THERE...SO WILL
GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. POPS DECREASE SHARPLY TODAY
FROM 90 PERCENT WEST TO 10 PERCENT EAST...WHERE A DRY NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AFTER
TODAY...BUT WONT EXIT THE FORECAST COMPLETELY UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO OPENS-UP AND EJECTS OUT OVER
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX.

BEYOND SATURDAY...AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
SOUTH TX WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING AND LITTLE-TO-NO
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
THIS SCENARIO AND HAVE GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
EDWARDS... KINNEY... AND VAL VERDE.

&&

08/13/DC/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
509 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-141100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
509 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR VAL VERDE...
EDWARDS...AND KINNEY COUNTIES. A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE WATCH AREA WHERE SOME SOILS ARE ALREADY
SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY OVER MAINLY
WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.