Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Quad Cities, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 250159
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
857 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

IAC019-250215-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-050725T0215Z/
BUCHANAN IA-
857 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
BUCHANAN COUNTY...

AT 852 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LITTLETON...OR ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF INDEPENDENCE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WAPSIPINICON GOLF COURSE BY 905 PM CDT
  INDEPENDENCE...THREE ELMS COUNTY PARK...8 MILES SOUTH OF FONTANA
  COUNTY PARK/CAMPGROUND AND 8 MILES NORTH OF ROWLEY BY 910 PM CDT
  6 MILES WEST OF WINTHROP...7 MILES WEST OF BUFFALO CREEK COUNTY
  PARK...7 MILES NORTH OF CEDAR ROCK STATE PARK AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST
  OF QUASQUETON BY 915 PM CDT

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4264 9162 4229 9161 4231 9205 4264 9207

$$

DLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

.SYNOPSIS...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH 100 EXCEEDED MAINLY ALONG I-80 CORRIDOR SO
FAR WITH WIDESPREAD 90S. OF NOTE...MLI REACHED 100 FOR FIRST TIME IN
10 YEARS. AT SURFACE...MSAS DEPICTS PRESSURE FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG
LINE ACROSS IA FROM KPDC THROUGH KALO TO KOMA. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
EVIDENT BY CLOUD FIELDS MUCH FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN IA TO
NORTHEAST NEB. PAST SEVERAL HOURS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING HAS
BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY. YET ANOTHER FEATURE OF
CONCERN IS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD FIELD AND INSTABILITY AXIS
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED THETA E RIDGE FROM NEAR FREEPORT TO
SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY. AS SOME OF THIS MIXES OUT AND SURFACE
APPROACHES CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...THIS AREA STARTING TO LIGHT UP
WITH A FEW CU AT MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCERNS CENTER AROUND
CONTINUED HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND ALSO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FRONTS OVER AREA. FIRST...LOOKING AT
THERMAL CONDITIONS...HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE POOLING KEEPS HIGH DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA.
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...SOME DRYING OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN N CENTRAL MO ARE IN UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...
DEEPER MIXING AS DAY PROGRESSES SEEMS TO BE MIXING DOWN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...THIS AREA SHOULD LINGER IN MID 70S
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT CLIMBED AS HIGH AS
EXPECTED ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR NORTH OF THE CENTRAL IA
BOUNDARY...BUT COMPENSATION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THERE SHOULD KEEP
LOWS IN MID 70S AS WELL. HEAT INDICES MAY DROP BELOW CRITERIA
BRIEFLY IN NORTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BACK OFF
CURRENT ADVISORY. ON MONDAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH SIMILAR AIRMASS TO TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WILL THUS EXTEND THE CURRENT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE NORTH WILL BE MORE
COMPLEX WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD COVER TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN AND WILL LEAVE OUT.

LOOKING AT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS DAKOTAS
SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE AN
MCS SOMEWHERE IN SD/NE/MN/IA AREA THIS EVENING WHICH MODELS KEEP
NEARLY STATIONARY. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARIES...CAP HAS
SO FAR KEPT CONVECTION IN CHECK. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK
TO BE REMNANTS OF MCS MOVING ALONG BOUNDARY IN NORTH WHERE DECENT
H85 CONVERGENCE DEPICTED AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES THERE
OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...LIKE GFS HANDLE OF MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
HOLDING TO THE NORTH...OVER THE MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION ACROSS
CENTRAL CWA SHOWN BY NAM. HOWEVER...WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
BOUNDARY AND WEAKER H7 CAP THAN TODAY...WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH.
..SHEETS..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SHOULD OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT...TO AROUND 9 AM TUESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTH.  MODELS ARE NO
LONGER SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PROVIDE
A SECONDARY WAVE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS IS NOW
PROJECTED FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  UNFORTUNATELY
FOR THOSE IN EXTREME DROUGHT IN FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THROUGH IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  THIS SAME SCENARIO HAS LIMITED MOST OF THE BENEFICIAL RAIN
EVENTS IN THOSE AREAS THIS WARM SEASON.

THAT SAID...THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 AS A STRONG MCS SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH
MONDAY EVENING. GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ABSORPTION OF ALL
BE THE MOST INTENSE OF RAINFALL RATES. SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...WITH SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL DURING THE EVENING AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWER
HUMIDITY.  ALL IN ALL...IT SHOULD BE A SPECTACULAR FEW DAYS OF
WEATHER...THOUGH IM SURE MANY WOULD TRADE IT FOR SEVERAL RAINY DAYS
INSTEAD.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A CENTRAL PLAINS/EASTERN
ROCKIES RIDGE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.  WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST...THERE WILL BE A SMALL
PROBABILITY OF MCS ACTIVITY SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE
CWA...SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK.
..ERVIN..
&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL 6
AM MONDAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30...HEAT
ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCOTLAND AND CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM
MONDAY.

&&

SHEETS/ERVIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
548 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-251049-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
548 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...NORTHEAST MISSOURI...
NORTHEAST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
IOWA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND FAR NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN DANGEROUS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO
115 DEGREES. EVEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...HEAT INDICES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 100 DEGREES BEFORE ONLY COOLING INTO THE 80S OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS TONIGHT. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THEY INCLUDE...WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...THE LACK OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND THE
PRESENCE OF WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTING AS A LID KEEPING THE
AIRMASS CAPPED. SHOULD SOME STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WITH
HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. ADVISORIES FOR
HEAT MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MONDAY...OR MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE TIMING AND EXTENT
OF THE SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE COLD
FRONT.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD LISTEN TO LATER FORECASTS AS THE SEVERE
THREAT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
829 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

IAZ040>042>042>002-250600-
BUCHANAN IA-DELAWARE IA-DUBUQUE IA-JO DAVIESS IL-
STEPHENSON IL-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
673 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS

JO DAVIESS            STEPHENSON

IN IOWA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST IOWA

BUCHANAN              DELAWARE              DUBUQUE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...DUBUQUE...FREEPORT...GALENA...
INDEPENDENCE AND MANCHESTER.