Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Quad Cities, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 102330
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

ILC131-161-102339-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-050610T2330Z/
ROCK ISLAND IL-MERCER IL-
629 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MERCER AND
SOUTHWESTERN ROCK ISLAND COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 630 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER HAVE
WEAKENED. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED 
TO EXPIRE.  THIS THUNDERSTORM IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND 
GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND BREIF TORRENTIAL RAIN AS IT MOVES 
NORTH OVER ROCK ISLAND AND EASTERN MUSCATINE COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 4125 9104 4124 9097 4142 9087 4141 9103

$$

ERVIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
145 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER PATTERN AND SURFACE PATTERN ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE HELPED
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.  AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED EAST TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AS
AN MCV MOVED NORTH OUT OF MISSOURI.  THIS HAS BROUGHT STORMS TO
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL HAVE OCCURRED IN THE NORTH...WHERE CONVECTION HAS BECOME
SURFACE BASED IN THE LAST HOUR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL...WILL KEEP GOING FORECAST INTACT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS A LOW CONFIDENCE UNSETTLED PERIOD OF SCATTERED STORMS AND
MCS POTENTIAL EXISTS IN THE WARM SECTOR.  ANOTHER MAJOR MCS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...WITH MORE
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALONG A NORTHWARD MOVING MCV OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI MOVING INTO IOWA THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES PROPAGATING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCATTERED STORMS
GOING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S IN GENERAL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THERE REMAINS A LOW THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE STORMS...BUT
LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
INHIBIT STORMS FROM SUSTAINING SEVERE.

MONDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN CHUNK OF UPPER ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THIS SHOULD BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST PREDICTABLE COVERAGE IN THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ALSO...DEPENDING ON TIMING...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER MAY ALSO RESULT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF THE REGION
AS THE EASTERN RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS INTENSE THAN
MONDAYS STORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY
DRY CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCES ON TIMING THIS WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IS
LOW...AND MAY BE DELAYED WITH MORE ENERGY POURING INTO THE WESTERN
STATES...AND A RATHER POWERFUL BERMUDA ALREADY IN PLACE.
..ERVIN..
&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

ERVIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
452 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111100-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
452 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST...EAST
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS MORNING...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT.  NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR EASTERN IOWA AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY.  ANY ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
WILL END IN THE MORNING... BUT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE
MAIN THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING EACH DAY.
THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BRING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAIN...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD OCCUR IF HEAVY RAIN AFFECTS LOCAL AREAS REPEATEDLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS DURING THE WEEKEND.

WOLF/MAYES