Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER LARGE AND STRONG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOTED OVER MN AND DAKOTAS
MOVING INTO NW IOWA AT 35 TO 40 MPH.  SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 70 MPH WITH ISOLATED 80+ MPH. SATELLITE
SUPPORTS RADAR TRENDS OF SYSTEM MOVING FROM MATURE TO SLOW
DISSIPATION STAGE AS WEAKENING PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLETS AND SOON
WILL MOVE INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.  DRY AIR ALOFT FROM SW MAY ALLOW
LATER CONVECTION THIS PM TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS OVER MIDWEST. SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND LATEST UPPER DATA SHOWS ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR LOCAL AREA
WITH BETTER CONVECTION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN TO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) NOWCAST TOOLS SUPPORT TRENDS OF
ALL SOLUTIONS OF NW IOWA CONVECTION TO PASS BETWEEN 15Z AND 22Z (10
AM AND 5 PM).  COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE BUT WEAKENING STAGES
AND LIMITED FORCING ATTM SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT PROBABLE.
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS WITH COOLER NW WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE EARLIER WITH
PRECIPITATION AND UP A BIT IN SE WHERE MORE SUNSHINE.  SADLY...RAIN
AMOUNTS MOST AREA APPEAR SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH MOST
LOCATIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS.  HAVE
UPPED POPS WHERE TIMING APPROPRIATE AS MOST LOCATION TO SEE SOME
MEASURABLE...ALBEIT LIGHT AMOUNTS.  TONIGHT...WENT WITH FORCING BEST
SHOWN BY UKMET/NGM/ECMWF OF ANOTHER MAJOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON 850
FRONT OVER KS INTO MO TO PROPAGATE MAINLY LATE INTO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS.  ETA/NAM
ONCE AGAIN MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH PLAINS CONVECTION AND SEE NO REASON
THIS TO CHANGE TONIGHT. KEPT TEMPS TONIGHT ON HIGH SIDE WITH CLOUDS
AND HIGH DEWPOINTS/RAIN.  ..NICHOLS..

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOCUS REMAINS ON ACTIVE
PATTERN THAT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FROM ANY PERIOD. UPPER PATTERN DOMINATED BY EASTERN RIDGE AND
WESTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION WITH AN AMPLIFICATION TREND ADVERTISED
BY MODELS LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND. THIS WILL PLACE FORECAST AREA INTO
MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF SW FLOW FOR BETTER UPPER SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
DETAILS IN POSITIONING OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND QPF MAXIMA CONTINUE
AMONG THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK...AND BLEND GENERALLY
FOLLOWED.

ON THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT MCS IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
FRONT SOUTH OF REGION IN THE MORNING...THEN IT REDEVELOPS NORTH OF
AREA BY THU NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SW KS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL INTRODUCE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT HAS BEEN
LACKING THE PAST FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...CWA WILL BE ON EDGE OF H5
SHORTWAVE TRAIN FOR ADDITIONAL TRIGGER AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
RAISED POPS INTO 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THU INTO THU NIGHT. WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL SHOOT QUICKLY UPWARD AND RAISED MAXES
INTO MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY
IN AREA...SEVERE POTENTIAL ALSO A CONCERN. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOWN TO HANG UP TO OUR NW PARALLEL TO UPPER SW
FLOW AND H85 THETA E RIDGE REFOCUSES AGAIN TO OUR WEST. GFS
ADVERTISES THE FRONT TO AGAIN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS REGIME THAT FAR OUT.
KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THEN ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TUESDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...
EDGING THEM UPWARD A BIT FRIDAY AS WE GET BACK DEEP INTO WARM
SECTOR. THEN...KEPT TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE SAT THROUGH
TUE.
..SHEETS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

NICHOLS/SHEETS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
529 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-091100-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
529 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST...EAST
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 9 AM AND 4 PM.  SOME OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND
STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH. THE LOCATION
OF GREATEST RISK IS SOUTHEAST IOWA...WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO KEOKUK
LINE. AT THIS TIME...ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND NOT BE
WIDESPREAD DUE LIMITED TRIGGER OR FORCING WITH THIS LINE.

THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP OR
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM MISSOURI AND CENTRAL IOWA. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH.  THE LOCATION OF GREATEST RISK WILL
BE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...ESPECIALLY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME ORGANIZED INTO LINES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
STORMS IMPACT AREAS ALREADY SATURATED BY REPEATED HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR COMPLEXES
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA EACH
DAY....ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACT THE SAME AREA. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON
TIMING AND AREAS OF GREATEST RISK WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THIS TIME
PERIOD NEARS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY BETWEEN 2 AND 9 PM.

NICHOLS/SHEETS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
115 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 PM     TSTM WND GST     BURLINGTON              40.81N 91.12W
06/08/2005  60 MPH           DES MOINES         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIND GUST NEAR BURLINGTON HIGH SCHOOL

1241 PM     HAIL             BURLINGTON              40.81N 91.12W
06/08/2005  0.88 INCH        DES MOINES         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1241 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W MONMOUTH            40.91N 90.74W
06/08/2005  70 MPH           WARREN             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0107 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BURLINGTON              40.81N 91.12W
06/08/2005                   DES MOINES         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            3 INCH TREE BRANCHES DOWN ON FLINT BOTTOM RD.

0115 PM     TSTM WND GST     SEATON                  41.10N 90.80W
06/08/2005  52 MPH           MERCER             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            43 TO 52 MPH WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
121 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BURLINGTON              40.81N 91.12W
06/08/2005                   DES MOINES         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            10 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB DOWN ON FLINT BOTTOM ROAD

0111 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW MEDIAPOLIS         40.95N 91.25W
06/08/2005                   DES MOINES         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3-4 DIAMETER WHOLE TREES SNAPPED OFF ALONG H40

&&

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
124 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N ALEXIS              41.08N 90.57W
06/08/2005                   MERCER             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
126 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND GST     STERLING                41.80N 89.69W
06/08/2005  50 MPH           WHITESIDE          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0125 PM     HAIL             KEWANEE                 41.24N 89.93W
06/08/2005  0.25 INCH        HENRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TAS

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