Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Quad Cities, IA

June 5, 2005Carroll County, Stephenson County, Illinois

NWS Quad Cities, IA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 5, 2005, 12:51 AM CDT for Carroll County, Stephenson County, Illinois. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 5, 2005, 12:51 AM CDT (05:51 UTC)
Expired: Jun 5, 2005, 1:34 AM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Quad Cities, IA
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Carroll County, IL, Stephenson County, IL

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 4, 8:15 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2060 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1369 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 91 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 219 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.7
Supercell composite: 6.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KDVN 050551
SVRDVN
ILC015-177-050630-
/O.NEW.KDVN.SV.W.0050.050605T0551Z-050605T0630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1251 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MOUNT CARROLL
  STEPHENSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FREEPORT

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 1249 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNT CARROLL...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHANNON BY 100 AM CDT
  PEARL CITY BY 105 AM CDT
  FREEPORT BY 115 AM CDT
  CEDARVILLE BY 120 AM CDT
  DAKOTA...ROCK CITY AND 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF RIDOTT BY 125 AM CDT
  DAVIS BY 130 AM CDT

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4217 9010 4194 8995 4221 8942 4247 8943
      4246 8968 4223 8993

$$

ERVIN

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 050608
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
108 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

ILC015-177-050630-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-050605T0630Z/
STEPHENSON IL-CARROLL IL-
108 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 130 AM CDT FOR
CARROLL AND STEPHENSON COUNTIES...

AT 102 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LANARK...OR ABOUT 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF MOUNT CARROLL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LANARK BY 100 AM CDT
  LORAN BY 110 AM CDT
  PEARL CITY AND BOLTON BY 115 AM CDT
  ELEROY BY 120 AM CDT
  DAMASCUS...SCIOTO MILLS AND CEDARVILLE BY 125 AM CDT
  RED OAK AND BUENA VISTA BY 130 AM CDT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING.

LAT...LON 4217 9010 4194 8995 4221 8942 4247 8943
      4246 8968 4223 8993

$$

ERVIN

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 050634
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
133 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

ILC015-177-050643-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-050605T0630Z/
STEPHENSON IL-CARROLL IL-
133 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CARROLL AND STEPHENSON 
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED AT 130 AM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER HAVE
WEAKENED. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4217 9010 4194 8995 4221 8942 4247 8943
      4246 8968 4223 8993

$$

ERVIN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 4, 2:53 PM CDT, 9 hours 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 4, 2:53 PM CDT, 9 hours 58 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
253 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF OUR CWA. THIS
PUTS MOST OF OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED
DRAMATICALLY IN SOME AREAS (INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S) AFTER THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. GREATEST SUFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT. SURFACE LOW WAS OVER THE SD-MN-IA
AREA WITH A BOUNDARY TRAILING SOUTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NE. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW VORT LOBE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
MN AND WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH A STRONGER VORT
AREA MOVING EAST OUT OF NORTHEAST CO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT. AT 250 MB...THERE WAS A SPEED MAX (UP TO
75 KT) EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

RADAR SHOWS THE CONVECTION WHICH PROMPTED TWO SEVERE TSTM WARNINGS
EARLIER FOR TWO OF OUR COUNTIES WAS IN THE CHICAGO TO MILWAUKEE AREA
AND MOVING NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW SMALL...MINOR..ECHOES
WERE OVER NORTHEAST IA.
..JAZ..

&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
OUR WEATHER MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTION FORCEAST
TO DEVELOP IN THE NE-KS-IA-MO AREA LATER TODAY. ACCORDING TO STORM
MOTION...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THERE SHOULD MAINLY STAY SOUTH
OF THE IA-MO BORDER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN OUR CWA
WOULD BE IN THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH MAY
HELP ROB OUR AREA OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY.

HAVING SAID THAT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN OUR
AREA WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING AS A VORT MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA...IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. WE MAY HAVE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BEFORE THEN HOWEVER. PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK THAT
IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA.
THE BEST CHANCES WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTH.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SLIGHT SHEAR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...WITH THE MOST IMPRESSIVE FEATURE BEING STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
IF THESE WINDS (MOMEMTUM) ARE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE THERE COULD
BE SOME WINDS ABOVE SEVERE CRITERIA.
..JAZ..

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...
UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD INTERACT WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  WILL CONTINUE SOME LOW
POPS FOR TSRA INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE H5 TROF AXIS.  AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WEATHER
OVER THE AREA SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME AS SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TROF LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND RIDGE TO THE EAST.  SWLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A SURFACE
FRONT WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR THUNDER STORM DEVELOPMENT.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE EAST COAST
RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...FORCING FRONT TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
...DLF...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

JAZ/DLF

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 4, 1:02 PM CDT, 11 hours 49 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
102 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-051000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
102 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST...EAST
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF GOLFBALLS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH BETWEEN 6 AND 11
PM. AN ISOLATED BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE
HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF A DUBUQUE...
MUSCATINE...KAHOKA MISSOURI LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CASCADE TO FORT MADISON IN EASTERN IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO A MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THIS TIME PERIOD NEARS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS  EVENING. INTERESTED
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI HAS BEEN SCHEDULED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT 3 PM CDT.

DLF

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 4, 11:58 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 PM     TSTM WND GST     BURLINGTON              40.81N 91.12W
06/04/2005  45 MPH           DES MOINES         IA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SCOTTD

Local storm report, Jun 5, 12:01 AM CDT, 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1201 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     HAIL             ELDRIDGE                41.64N 90.57W
06/04/2005  0.50 INCH        SCOTT              IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SCOTTD

Local storm report, Jun 5, 12:03 AM CDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1203 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     HAIL             CENTRALIA               42.47N 90.84W
06/04/2005  0.25 INCH        DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SCOTTD

Local storm report, Jun 5, 12:07 AM CDT, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1207 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     TSTM WND GST     VINTON                  42.16N 92.03W
06/04/2005  64 MPH           BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SCOTTD

Local storm report, Jun 5, 12:22 AM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1222 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     TSTM WND GST     DUBUQUE                 42.50N 90.69W
06/05/2005  73 MPH           DUBUQUE            IA   AWOS

&&

SCOTTD

Local storm report, Jun 5, 12:40 AM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1240 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GALENA                  42.42N 90.43W
06/05/2005                   JO DAVIESS         IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADWAYS.

&&

MDB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Quad Cities, IA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 4, 10:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Carroll	62 min
Jun 4, 11:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Rock Island	39 min
Jun 5, 12:21 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Jo Daviess, Stephenson	57 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2005 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.