Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Quad Cities, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 191826
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
125 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

IAC105-191845-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-050519T1845Z/
JONES IA-
125 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY...

AT 120 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TEMPLE HILL...OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST 
OF ANAMOSA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TEMPLE HILL AND 6 MILES NORTH OF ONSLOW BY 120 PM CDT

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4229 9127 4212 9123 4205 9091 4229 9091

$$

SHEETS

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 191845
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
143 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

IAC105-191853-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-050519T1845Z/
JONES IA-
143 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 145 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER HAS 
WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...STORMS 
OVER EASTERN JONES COUNTY AND WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY MAY STILL BE 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH 2 PM. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN IOWA UNTIL 9 PM 
CDT. 

LAT...LON 4229 9127 4212 9123 4205 9091 4229 9091

$$

SHEETS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
445 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS CLOSED CIRCULATION SPINNING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KMSP MN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND DRY SLOT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW IN CENTRAL MN WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO SECONDARY LOW NEAR KVTI IA. WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM SECONDARY LOW INTO CENTRAL IL WHILE SFC TROUGH EXTENDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL IA. CLEARING MARCHING EASTWARD
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES
AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE WITH AID FROM RECENT RAIN...HAS LED TO
WIDESPREAD FOG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
FEET. ..MM..

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SCENARIO TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX. UPPER LOW
IN CENTRAL MN IS PROGGED TO DIVE E/SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z FRI.
MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TODAY LIKELY WILL BE FOCUSED JUST TO OUR EAST/SOUTH
FROM EASTERN/CENTRAL IL INTO IN/OH IN PROXIMITY TO TRIPLE POINT WHERE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES. STILL THOUGH
WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS. INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER IN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL IL. CLEARING SKIES WILL MEAN
AMPLE SUNSHINE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...ONCE FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF. MODELS SHOW LITTLE/NO CAPPING INVERSION...AND SUFFICIENT LLVL
MOISTURE THANKS IN PART TO RAINS OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE DEWPTS IN THE U50S TO
L60S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR T/TD OF 83/60 YIELDS
CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1700 J/KG. TRIGGER WILL COME IN THE FORM OF CLOSED LOW AND
ALSO SECONDARY SFC LOW WHICH IS SHOWN MOVING E/SE ALONG OCCLUSION INTO
NORTHEAST IA AND NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTN. ALSO...CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS. IT APPEARS MID CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IN
THE NORTH...SO KEPT CHC OF AFTN SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS THERE...BUT HAVE
CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS ELSEWHERE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
WITH TIME...SO MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL.
SECONDARY THREATS WITH INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW
TORNADOES IF WE CAN GET ANY LLVL BACKING OF WINDS ESP AHEAD OF SFC LOW AND
TROUGH. AS FOR MAXES...SIDED AT OR JUST ABOVE WARM END IN THE SOUTHERN
1/2 TO 2/3RDS...AND NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND IN THE NORTH WHERE MID CLOUDS WILL
HAVE SOME IMPACT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AS
06Z RUC SHOWS LLVL FLOW INCREASING AND SOUTHWESTERLY. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR THEN DEEPER MIXING AND PROGGED THICKNESS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE
RANGE OF 84-86 DEGS.

PCPN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THEN CONCERNS
FOCUS ON LOW CLOUDS...MIN TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS LAKE ENHANCED
FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO...WINDS COULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENT
FCST. MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERDONE ON EXTENT OF COOLING...SO WENT FEW DEGS
BELOW IN THE NORTHERN 1/3 TO 1/2. LEFT OUT FOG FOR NOW AND LET DAY CREW TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF WORTHY OF FORECAST MENTION. WILL HAVE MVFR FOG AT
ALL TAF SITES EXPECT POSSIBLY KBRL.  ..MM..

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WX TO INITIALLY BE QUIET WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AFTER THAT QUIET WX EXPECTED WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FCST
OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOKS OK ATTM.  ..08..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

MM/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-201000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

...SOME SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP AND OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST...EAST
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHWAY 30
CORRIDOR...ROUGHLY ALONG A MT CARROLL TO CEDAR RAPIDS LINE BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE LINE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BY MID
EVENING. BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM IT APPEARS SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF A
STERLING TO TIPTON TO WASHINGTON TO KEOKUK LINE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM.

THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL UP TO SIZE OF
QUARTERS. MODERATE DIRECTIONAL WINDS SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ALSO DAMAGING WINDS.  CURRENT CALCULATIONS
SUGGEST WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS OF 82F AND 57F...
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF OVER 60 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES OF UP TO MID LEVEL F1 INTENSITY...OR WINDS OF 73 TO 112 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON BY 2 PM TIL AROUND 8 PM
IN THE GREATEST THREAT REGION.  PLEASE RELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
REPORTS TO THE NOAA NWS OFFICE IN THE QUAD CITIES.

NICHOLS