Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 122312
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
612 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

IAC169-122330-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-050512T2330Z/
STORY IA-
612 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN STORY
COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN STORY COUNTY HAS 
BEEN CANCELED...

AT 610 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEVADA...OR 36 MILES NORTH OF
DES MOINES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCCALLSBURG BY 620 PM CDT.
  NEAR ZEARING BY 625 PM CDT.

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DES MOINES AT 1-800-759-9276.

LAT...LON 4204 9354 4200 9337 4210 9325 4219 9327
      4221 9351

$$

COGIL

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 122339
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
639 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

IAC169-122349-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-050512T2330Z/
STORY IA-
639 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN STORY COUNTY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

AT 636 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DES MOINES AT 1-800-759-9276.

LAT...LON 4204 9354 4200 9337 4210 9325 4219 9327
      4221 9351

$$

COGIL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
300 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS MAINLY IN THE SHORT TERM AS SEVERE WX AND FLOODING EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS WITH FLOODING LAT5E
TONIGHT.  LOOKING AT SVR THREAT FIRST BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA HOWEVER AS STRONG S/W COMES OUT ALONG WITH SEVERAL MINOR WAVES
INTO AREA OF SHARP CONTRAST GOOD LIFT IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICAL FIELDS
RESULT IN CATEGORICAL POPS.  LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND LAST
SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS IN MANY AREAS BRING LIKELIHOOD OF
FLOODING LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DIFFICULT AS VERY
COOL AIRMASS BRING SHARP CONTRAST IN THE STATE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTH.  RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING BY FRIDAY AFTN AS SUPPORT LEAVES THE
STATE WITH A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM IAW WITH ALL THE MODELS.  LITTLE
LARGE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AS UPPER TROF
STILL INVOF IOWA AND UPPER MIDWEST..  LOOKING INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE WEEKEND EXPECT DRY WEATHER THOUGH RAIN WILL NOT BE FAR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OUTSIDE CWA.

IN LONGER TERM SUNDAY ANOTHER DAY OF 60S THOUGH DRY.  UPPER RIDGE
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO MODERATE INTO THE 70S DURING EXTENDED FORECAST.  MAIN CONCERN IN
LONGER TERM IS SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE STATE AND MODEL TREND IS
SLOWING BEGINNING OF RAIN.  HAVE LEFT VERY LOW POPS NW HWVR BELIEVE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE TUESDAY THEN SYSTEM WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.
HAVE LEFT REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY ATTM.

IN LONGER TERM
&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT
(6PM-6AM) FM DENISON TO AMES TO WATERLOO

&&

$$FORSTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
654 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-131115-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
654 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL THIRD OF IOWA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA .

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAYBE
SEVERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AFTER 5 PM...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THE MOST LIKELY EXTREMES. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 20...AND EAST OF A LINE FROM FORT DODGE TO CRESTON.
AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT ON FRIDAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR LATE TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY IN SOUTHERN IOWA.

MYERS