Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 260231
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
930 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

IAC121-260245-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0295.000000T0000Z-050926T0245Z/
MADISON IA-
930 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MADISON COUNTY
UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 927 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINTERSET...OR 26 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF DES MOINES...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF 
MADISON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE LOCATIONS OF TRURO AND ST. CHARLES.  
INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 43 AND 55 WILL BE AFFECTED BY 
THIS STORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DES MOINES AT 1-800-759-9276.

LAT...LON 4134 9424 4118 9422 4117 9381 4150 9382
      4150 9399

$$

SMALL

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 260247
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
947 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

IAC121-260257-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0295.000000T0000Z-050926T0245Z/
MADISON IA-
947 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MADISON COUNTY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

AT 944 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA 
AND WEAKENED SLIGHTLY.  THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING 
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DES MOINES AT 1-800-759-9276.

LAT...LON 4134 9424 4118 9422 4117 9381 4150 9382
      4150 9399

$$

SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
331 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS POTENT SHORT WAVE OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS QUICKLY DIVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST DURING THE
PERIOD. 12Z 250 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTION TODAY AIDED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
DESPITE LACK OF SFC INSTABILITY...APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS THEN COMING TO AN END TOWARD MORNING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AS THERMAL PROFILES AND
UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL WITH A BETTER
THREAT SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE. 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION WILL BECOME
FOCUSED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON
WED. GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAJORITY OF EVENT WILL LACK
THUNDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS MENTION MAY BE ABLE TO
BE PULLED FROM FUTURE FORECASTS. THE FALLS FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WED AS WELL AND DEPENDING ON TIMING
MAY LEAD TO FALLING TEMPS INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE FIRST FROST MAY BE ON TAP BY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE NISHNABOTNA VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
VERY DRY CANADIAN AIR SETTLE OVER THE STATE. A COOL DAY ON THURSDAY
AND THEN A POSSIBLE REPEAT PERFORMANCE FRIDAY MORNING UNDER THE
SECOND NIGHT OF THE HIGH...ESPECIALLY EAST. HAVE BEGUN TO TRIM
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES EACH MORNING. TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN WITH THE WESTERN CONUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT
INTO THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
BACK BY A HALF DAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DONAVON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
152 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-261900-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
152 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY....AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BETWEEN THESE TWO EVENTS...COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO IOWA. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST ON THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 30.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.