Severe Thunderstorm Warning 278, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS DURING INIT TIMEFRAME WL BE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE
FNT AND POT FOR DVLPMT AS IT MOVS THRU.  SWODY1 LKS GUD FOR POT FOR
ANY SVR AND WL GO WITH SOME DVLPMT EARLIER RATHER THAN LATER IN THIS
CASE.  CAPE PRETTY MUCH NON-EXISTENT.  THINGS NOT GOING THIS MRNG IN
SPITE OF GOD TRANSPORT OF MSTR DUE TO DIV AT H8 DPCTD IN PROFILER
NET.  AREA OF CONV COMING UP FM THE SW AND SHUD SEE THINGS GO AFT
SNRS.  FEEL 06Z/ETA IS TOO FAST, BUT IDEA IS THERE.  FNT WL BE TO
THE S AND DONT XPCT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WX BFR THE WKND.  SOME
TIMING PROBS WITH THAT WITH ABT A 24 HR DIF BTWN GEM/SEF AND GFS, SO
NO MAJOR CHNGS PLANNED FOR NOW.  WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER
ROUND ERY NXT WK.  GFS HAS BEEN MORE INSISTENT WITH TROF MOVG THRU,
THOUGH FEEL IT IS TOO STRONG.  LIKE SOFTER GEM ON THIS EVENT AND
THEREFORE WENT FOR LOW POPS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
531 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033>036-044>047-057-058-141045-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-
531 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IOWA...NORTHWEST OF AN ATLANTIC TO AMES TO WAVERLY LINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY
WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 30
ON SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

IAZ027-028-037>039-048>050-059>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-141045-
BUTLER-BREMER-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-DALLAS-
POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-
ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
531 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IOWA...SOUTHEAST OF AN ATLANTIC TO AMES TO WAVERLY LINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKLES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON
SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FROM 1000 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL
500 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
751 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 AM     HAIL             N DIAGONAL              40.81N 94.34W
09/13/2005  0.75 INCH        RINGGOLD           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1144 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 AM     HAIL             3 NNW BEACONSFIELD      40.85N 94.07W
09/13/2005  0.88 INCH        RINGGOLD           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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