Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
800 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ZONE UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT. NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. STILL SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL
BE ABLE TO FIRE. CURRENTLY THE SURFACE FRONT HAS EDGED INTO NORTHERN
IOWA. SFC CONVECTION REMAINS CAPPED WITH WARM LOWER/MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. DOES LOOK LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD OCCUR
LATER THIS EVENING AS SPEED CONFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER WEST AND NW
IA IN THE H925-850 LAYER. JUST ABOVE THIS...ANY PARCEL LIFTED FROM
ABOUT H800 IS PRETTY MUCH GOOD TO GO ACCORDING TO THE ETA WITH
LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION AND CAPES AROUND 4K J/KG. GFS AND RUC
MAINTAIN A CAPPING LAYER AROUND H7 AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION GIVEN VEERING H850 FLOW BY 06Z AND DECREASED
CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. TURNS OUT INITIATING
CONVECTION OVER IA MAY BE A MOOT POINT IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IN SD CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR A WHILE LONGER THIS EVENING.
STEERING FLOW AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORF VECTORS WOULD BRING THIS
ESE ALONG THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COULD
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE POOLING AND EVAPOTRANS
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING PUSHING DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 70S.
DEW PTS WILL COME DOWN SOME LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT A
QUITE WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPS TO NOT BE AS WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS IN MIND AND TO BRING US
INTO BETTER COLLAB.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JAW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1113 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

IAZ004-005-015-023-024-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-212100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-
HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-
STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-
CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-
MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1113 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN IOWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AROUND 70 MPH. THERE WILL BE A
SMALL THREAT OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EARLY MORNING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-80
ON THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
EVENING.

IAZ006-007-016-017-025>028-212100-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-
1113 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
3 AM. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH 60 MPH WINDS AND NICKEL
SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED MORNING NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
300 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     HAIL             8 WSW BEDFORD MUNICIPAL 40.59N 94.86W
07/21/2005  0.75 INCH        TAYLOR             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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