Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
245 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER TNT OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH DERECHO IN
FULL PROGRESS...ZIPPING ESE AT 50 MPH ATTM. SFC FEATURES SHOW WEAK
CONVERGENT ZONE/WARM FRONT FROM LOW OVER CENTRAL ND SOUTH TO ABOUT
NORTHEAST IA. ANOTHER LOW APPEARS OVER SW SOUTH DAKOTA WITH TRAILING
OCCLUSION/COLD FRONT TO ANOTHER LOW IN SE COLORADO. SECOND WARM
FRONT RUNS ACROSS NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN KS THIS EVENING. MCS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EAST WITH POTENTIAL TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN IA BY MORNING
AS CORFIDI VECTORS CONTINUE TO POINT COMPLEX MORE SOUTH. MOIST POOL
EXTENDS OVER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. ALOFT RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. H850 MOISTURE LACKING FROM
KDVN EASTWARD WITH NARROW RIBBON MOISTURE ALONG TROF AXIS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA.

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUES NIGHT)...CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY REGARDING
STRENGTH OF INDICES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TNT. SVR WX INDICES NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE LAST RUN WITH MLCAPES SLIGHTLY LOWER...BULK SHEAR NOT AS
STRONG IN BOTH MODELS AND MBE MOVEMENT WEAKER COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
BUFKIT ANALYSIS. MODELS MAY HAVE OVERDONE RETURN OF SFC MOISTURE
YESTERDAY AND ARE NOW CATCHING UP TO SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY.
MODELS NOW CONVERGING ON CONSENSUS SOLN FOR LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WITH A SLOWER FROPA SUN EVE/MONDAY AM WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AFTER ANY RESIDUAL
CONVECTION THIS MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE REDEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE
ALONG FRONT OVER NW IA/EASTERN NE 18-21Z AND ALSO ALONG POSSIBLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS DAKOTAS MCS. MLCAPE INCREASES TO
2500 OVER CENTRAL TO NEARLY 4000 J/KG ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT AND ALSO POOLING ALONG SECOND WARM
FRONT IN NORTHEAST KS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING
SHEAR BY 00Z...POINTING TO BEST POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS FAR WEST
EARLY ON THE EVENT WITH A TRANSITION TO LINEAR MCS WITH BOWING
STRUCTURES. BEST BULK SHEAR REMAINS NORTH WITH BOTH H500 AND H300
JET STREAKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS...BUT HAVING SAID THAT NAM STILL HAS 35-45 KTS
BULK SHEAR AT 00Z OVER WESTERN IA/EASTERN NE WEAKENING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH 50-60 KTS BULK SHEAR OVER
CENTRAL IA AT 00Z AND WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE NAM. FREEZING
LVLS REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH 14400 FT AT KOMA TO 14700 AT
KDSM AT 00Z. WINDS TODAY WILL BE RATHER BRISK FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. PRIMARY THREAT FOR SVR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE HAIL AND WIND. STORMS LOOK TO BE MOVING QUICK ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANY HYDRO ISSUES...THOUGH ALONG SLOWING FRONT IN
SOUTHERN IOWA LATE TNT...A FEW AREAS WILL NEED WATCHING. FRONT WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN AREAS TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF THUNDER
SOUTH ON MONDAY MORNING THOUGH REST OF AREA SHOULD BE DRY AS
SUPPORTED BY MOST MODELS. BY TUESDAY SOME WAA RETURNS TO THE DAKOTAS
WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION HEADING ESE FOR TUES NIGHT/WED. WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE DROPPED CHANCES ON
WED.

EXTENDED (WED-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL LATER IN
THE PERIOD WHEN NEXT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THUR/FRI. GRADUAL WARMING WITH INCREASED POPS BY VERY LATE IN THE
PERIOD THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS BACK IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WEST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
538 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

IAZ004>007-015>017-041100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
538 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF
CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 9 AM THIS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR 60 MPH NEAR AND ALONG THE IOWA AND MINNESOTA BORDER.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA...DEVELOPING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...BUT IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

AT THIS TIME...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

IAZ023>028-033>039-044>050-057>061-070>072-081-041100-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-CASS-
ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-
538 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BRIEF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...BUT IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

AT THIS TIME...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

IAZ062-073>075-082>086-092>097-041100-
POWESHIEK-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
538 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A PERIOD OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF I-35. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM...CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT HOURS.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT
HOURS WITH ADDITIONALLY...POSSIBLE LOCALY HEAVY RAINFALL WEST OF
I-35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG THE
IOWA AND MISSOURI BORDER...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...BUT IS LIKELY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

AT THIS TIME...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 AM     HAIL             ESTHERVILLE             43.40N 94.83W
07/03/2005  0.88 INCH        EMMET              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MYERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
641 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 AM     HAIL             3 N WALLINGFORD         43.36N 94.79W
07/03/2005  0.88 INCH        EMMET              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL TO SLIGHTLY LARGER SIZED HAIL FROM SOUTH OF
            ESTHERVILLE TO WALLINGFORD. REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
            MANAGEMENT.

&&

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
649 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 AM     HAIL             5 E WALLINGFORD         43.32N 94.69W
07/03/2005  0.88 INCH        EMMET              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MYERS