Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT TNGT. CLASSIC FLASH
FLOOD SITUATION SETTING UP WITH QSTNRY E/W BNDRY FM ONAWA NR AMES TO
CID. THIS BNDRY XTENDS UP TO H7. BNDRY IS CREEPING NWD AT THE SFC AS
BL FLOW HAS INCRD FM THE S NOW VIA SLATER PROFILER AND 88D VAD WNDS.
PLENTY OF PW...DECENT S/W OVR ERN NEB AND GOOD THETAE RDGG ACRS SRN
IA WITH A PROGGED INCR AT H7 INTO THE N. SO WE HAVE A FAIRLY WARM
AMS THRU A DEEP LAYER FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL. BEST AREA WL BE ALG
AND N OF THE BNDRY...WHICH SUSTAINED DECENT RAINS LAST NGT. NO BIGGY
PROBLEMS IN THAT AREA NOW...BUT ANOTHER SGFNT ROUND WOULD INFLICT
SOME PAIN. BEST THREAT AREA TO BE A TRIANGLE FROM ALO-FOD-MCW AREA.
THAT/S MY BEST SHOT WITH A 2.25 QPF BULLSEYE IN THE GRIDS. I THINK
AT LEAST SOMEPLACE WILL SEE 4-5INCHES...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
DECENT H8 INFLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD PRODUCE SOME TRAINING
TWDS THE SW FM THAT AREA...BUT THAT IS A MORE IFFY SITUATION. SOME
SHEAR IS AVBL INITIALLY THIS EVENING...BUT RPDLY DCRS...SO PLENTY OF
MULTICELL HEAVY RAINERS. BYD TNGT...MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE BNDRY LIFTS NWD TO HARASS MN AND SD NXT FEW DAYS SO LTL
PCPN CHCS. THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN LATE MON INTO TUE WITH
DVLPMT OVR MN SINKING SWD INTO NRN IA. DAY5-7 ESSENTIALLY PCPN FREE
WITH MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NRN HALF
7PM-4AM.

&&

MYERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
151 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-261900-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
151 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP FROM THE
OMAHA AREA NORTHEAST ALONG HIGHWAY 30. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH RAINFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. MANY AREAS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM
HEAVY RAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SO ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA BOUNDED BY FORT DODGE...MASON
CITY AND WATERLOO. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
EXCESSIVE RAIN AND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE CALLED UPON FOR RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LESSER POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVATION DUE TO
SEVERE WEATHER.

IAZ057>062-070>075-261900-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-
151 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
WESTERN IOWA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP FROM THE OMAHA AREA
NORTHEAST ALONG HIGHWAY 30. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH PER HOUR...AS THEY TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DURING
THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE LIKELY TO BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY
30...BUT THERE IS ALSO A THREAT ALONG THE I-80 TO HIGHWAY 30
CORRIDOR IF THE STORMS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. SOME AREAS ARE
ALREADY SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SO
ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING.
ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE EXCESSIVE RAIN AND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE CALLED UPON FOR RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LESSER POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVATION DUE TO
SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE CALLED UPON FOR RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LESSER POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVATION DUE TO
SEVERE WEATHER.

IAZ081>086-092>097-261900-
ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
151 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
WEST OF I-35...AND COULD MOVE EAST OF I-35 DURING THE EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A SMALL
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND TO THE WEST OF I-35. SINCE
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 DID NOT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND MORE PROLONGED RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER NORTH
AGAIN TONIGHT...THE THREAT OF FLOODING IN SOUTHERN IOWA IS
LIMITED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE CALLED UPON FOR RAINFALL...FLOODING REPORTS OR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.