Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 301031
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
431 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

IAC063-301045-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-050330T1045Z/
EMMET IA-
431 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR WESTERN EMMET COUNTY
UNTIL 445 AM CST...

AT 430 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ESTHERVILLE...OR 26 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SPENCER...AND MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  NEAR ESTHERVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT BY 433 AM CST.

THE LOCATIONS OF WALLINGFORD AND GRUVER ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4326 9492 4326 9470 4350 9466 4349 9492

$$

COGIL

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 301045
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
445 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

IAC063-301055-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-050330T1045Z/
EMMET IA-
445 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN EMMET COUNTY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

AT 445 AM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

AT 428 AM CST...NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED 4 MILES SOUTH OF 
ESTHERVILLE.

LAT...LON 4326 9492 4326 9470 4350 9466 4349 9492

$$

COGIL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
334 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CONCERN WL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND SVR POTENTIAL TDA
FOLLOWED BY WND AND LINGERING PCPN TNGT.  CURRENT SITUATION HAS
POTENT SHRT WV LIFTING ACRS KS WITH 110+KT SPEED MAX ROUNDING TROF
INTO OH VLY.  UPR LVL DVRG AHD OF TROF AND IN LEFT EXIT RGN OF JET
SEGMENT AIDING UVM ACRS MO RVR VLY.  XPC CONVECTION TO CONT
EXPANDING THIS MRNG ACRS IA.  FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WL BE WRN SXNS.
QG FORCING MAX OVR NE AND LOBE INTO MO WL LIFT INTO IA SHRTLY ALG
WITH NEGATIVE H7/H5 THETA-E LAPSE RATES ADVECTING NWD AS WELL.  SOME
THETA-E ADVCTN FM SIOUXLAND INTO MN...BUT MOST OF FORCING APPRS TO
BE KINEMATIC AND ASSOCD WITH STG FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE AREA ON
ERN FRINGE OF DEFORMATION ZN.  THIS PCPN AREA SHOULD EXPAND AND WORK
ITS WAY EWD ACRS NWRD 2/3RDS OF IA TDA.

LOOKING FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE DVLPMT FARTHER E THIS MRNG.  08Z SFC
ANLYS PLACES SFC LOW BTWN KRSL-KSLN AND MDLS BRING LOW TO FAR SERN
CORNER OF NE JUST AFT 15Z.  NAM ERODES CIN BY 15Z ACRS SWRN IA WITH
MLCAPES AOA 600 J/KG...BUILDING TO AOA 1000 J/KG BY 18Z OVR ERN IA.
THIS LOOK RESONABLE GIVEN MLCAPES ARE ALREADY AOA 500 J/KG APCHG MO
RVR WITH CIN DOWN TO 75 J/KG...AND LTL CLOUD COVER S.  SHEAR WL BE
THE ONLY QUESTION.  DEEP AND SHALLOW SHEAR ADEQUATE AT INITIATION
FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...BUT QUICKLY PUSHES EWD OUT OF FA BY
18Z SO SVR WINDOW LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL.  LCL/LFC VALUES SEEM HIGH TOO
SO ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD TORNADO...OUR BEST THREAT MAY BE
HAIL AND WIND.  TEMP WISE...AGN STAYED AOA HIGH END OF GUIDANCE
WHICH IS GENERALLY NAM MOS.

BECAUSE OF THIS THINKING...IOWA SVR WX AWARENESS WEEK TORNADO DRILL
AND ASSOCD WATCH AND WRNG TESTS WL BE POSTPONED TIL TMRW.  SAME
TIMES AS SCHEDULED FOR TDA.

XPC DEFORMATION ZN PCPN TO LINGER ACRS FA THRU MUCH OF
NIGHT...SPCLLY NERN HLF SO HAVE RAISED POPS THRU CHC...LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL CATEGORIES FM S-N.  EVEN HELD SLGT CHCS INTO FAR NERN
PTNS EARLY TMRW.  WND WISE...NICE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET INDICATED ACRS
SFC FEATURES ATTM AND THIS SHOULD CROSS FA TNGT.  ONLY THING HOLDING
BACK ADVY WL BE ONGOING PCPN AND UVM WHICH COULD TEMPER FCST MIXING
SOMEWHAT.  WENT WITH HIGHER NAM MOS VALUES FOR WNDS.

LTL WX IN LATER PDS BUT DID ADD MENTION OF SLGT CHCS THU NGT AS WEAK
NW FLOW SHRT WV DROPS DOWN MO VLY.  FOLLOWED BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH
TNGT THRU FRI WITH FOLLOWING XCPTNS...FCST SOUNDINGS WITH MIXING
SUGGEST NUDGE TWRD HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE THU...AND LOWER END FRI.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SMALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
528 AM CST TUE MAR 29 2005

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-301200-
ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-
CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT-
528 AM CST TUE MAR 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER INTO IOWA THIS EVENING...AND THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND A FEW MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS IOWA WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY AGAIN
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

SMALL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
407 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-301800-
ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-
CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT-
407 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

...IOWA SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK TORNADO WATCH AND WARNING TESTS
   AND DRILLS POSTPONED...

THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW ABOVE SEVERE CRITERIA...AND OTHERS JUST BELOW
CRITERIA ARE CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THIS
MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE LATER TODAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF IOWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS UNDER A MODERATE RISK.

TO AVOID POSSIBLE CONFUSION BETWEEN CURRENT WEATHER WITH POSSIBLE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...AND TEST DRILLS AND WARNINGS...THE IOWA
SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK TORNADO DRILL AND ASSOCIATED TEST
TORNADO WATCH AND WARNINGS WILL BE POSTPONED UNTIL THURSDAY.  THE
DRILL AND TESTS THURSDAY WILL OCCUR AT THE SAME TIMES AS SCHEDULED
FOR TODAY.

SMALL