Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 050215
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
914 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

IAC125-135-181-050245-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-050605T0245Z/
MARION IA-WARREN IA-MONROE IA-
914 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MONROE...EASTERN
WARREN AND MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 912 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST 
OF PRAIRIE CITY TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALBIA TO 11 MILES NORTHWEST 
OF CENTERVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES EAST OF DES 
MOINES TO 27 MILES WEST OF OTTUMWA TO 34 MILES WEST OF OTTUMWA...AND 
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR BUSSEY BY 920 PM CDT.
  NEAR PELLA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT BY 925 PM CDT.
  NEAR PELLA BY 930 PM CDT.
  NEAR ALBIA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT BY 935 PM CDT.

THE LOCATIONS OF MARYSVILLE...KNOXVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...
MELROSE...SWAN...LOVILIA...HAMILTON AND HARVEY ARE ALSO IN THE PATH
OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 61 MPH WERE REPORTED IN KNOXVILLE WITH THIS 
STORM AT 914 PM.  THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM...SEEK SAFE SHELTER AND 
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.


LAT...LON 4150 9336 4117 9338 4117 9310 4090 9311
      4091 9266 4114 9268 4114 9289 4150 9287

$$

SMALL

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 050253
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
953 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

IAC127-050330-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0110.000000T0000Z-050605T0330Z/
MARSHALL IA-
953 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL
COUNTY UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 950 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF STATE CENTER TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF
MARSHALLTOWN TO GRINNELL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 33 MILES
NORTHEAST OF DES MOINES TO 43 MILES NORTHEAST OF DES MOINES TO 48
MILES EAST OF DES MOINES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR MARSHALLTOWN BY 1005 PM CDT.

THE LOCATIONS OF LAUREL...GILMAN...HAVERHILL...FERGUSON AND LE GRAND
ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4220 9278 4188 9316 4187 9278 4200 9278

$$

KINNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

.SHORT TERM...TNGT THRU MON NGT
PRIMARY CONCERN WL BE NR TERM SVR AND HYDRO THREAT.  CURRENT
SCENARIO HAS SPEED MAX EJECTING INTO MO VLY INCRG DEEP SHEAR.  SHRT
WV FM MRNG CONVECTION EXITING NERN IA LEAVING BHND BRIEF PD OF
DVM...WHILE NEXT WV APCHG INVOF CO/NE/KS BORDER.  THIS QG FORCING
AXIS EXTENDS FM WV INTO SERN KS AND HAS HELPED INITIATE TSTMS NR
TOP.  FEEL THIS UVM WL AID TSTM DVLPMT INVOF MSTR CNVGNC AXIS WHICH
20Z OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SFC ANLYS PLACES ACRS ERN KS AND NRN
MO/ERN IA TO A LESSER EXTENT.  20Z MLCAPES SHOW VERY UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED AMS OVR KS/MO...APCHG 4000 J/KG.  BUNKERS STORM MOTION
BRINGS TOP TSTMS INTO SRN IA AND CURRENT TOR WATCH ARND 23Z.  COULD
BE ISOLD TORNADOES BUT WITH LOW LVL BNDRY LACKING MAIN THREAT MAY BE
HAIL AND WIND.  SUPERCELL PARAMETERS CERTAINLY PEGGED.

THESE STORMS HAVE DVLPD ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WHICH FOCUSES INTO
SERN IA OVNGT.  WRM CLD DEPTH AND PWS ARND 1.50 SHOULD BE IN PLACE
FOR EFFICIENT RAINERS WHERE 1.50-2.00 FELL LAST NGT AND ALSO BLENDS
INTO OAX/EAX WATCH.  COULD SEE SOME TRAINING WITH CORFIDI VECTORS
SHOWING MOTION PARALLEL TO BNDRY SO WL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
THESE AREAS.  CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT ERN PTNS OVNGT WITH MORE SCT
DVLPMT POSSIBLE TMRW AS UPR LOW MOVES ACRS.  NO SGFNT BNDRY BUT
VARIOUS INSTABILITY INDICES POINT TWRD MORE DVLPMT DRNG PEAK
HEATING.  ALTHOUGH LOW CHCS WL LINGER SUN EVE ERN PTNS...WE SHOULD
THEN SEE A BREAK INTO BEGINNING OF WORK WEEK AS RDG BUILDS INTO MO
VLY.

NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUN MAX TEMPS NR WARMEST OF TWO MOS
GUIDANCES AND MIXED TO AOA 800MB AND WL STAY IN THIS BALL PARK FOR
MAXES TMRW.  MON LOOKS QUITE WRM TOO WITH BOTH GFS/NAM POINTING TWRD
MIXING TO 750MB.  THIS SUGGESTS AT OR JUST ABV WRM END OF GUIDANCE.
STAYED TWRD COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

.LONG TERM...TUE THRU SAT
MAIN FOCUS IN THIS PD WL BE EVOLUTION OF APCHG CDFNT.  MDLS ARE
HAVING THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH UPR LVL ENERGY TO
BRING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS RESULTS IN QUESTIONS WITH
ASSOCD BNDRY AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH MDLS DO AGREE THAT BNDRY WL BE
SOMEWHERE NR IA...PSN AND DETAILS CRITICAL TO FCST STILL TOUGH TO
PIN DOWN.  00Z MDL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SLGTLY BETTER CHCS INVOF MN
BORDER...AND TUE THRU WED NGT INVOF FNT.  GFS POINTING N WHILE
NAM/ECMWF LOOK CLOSER TO HOME.  NRN PTNS INVOF FNT MAY END UP SEEING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR WX WHERE SVRL SUPERCELL AND TORNADO PARAMETERS
ARE EMPHASIZING THINGS.  LLJ FOCUSING ON SAME AREA TOO WITH HVY
RAINS POSSIBLE.  SVR THREAT MAY DMSH SOMEWHAT...BUT THIS PTN LOOKS
TO HOLD THRU MUCH OF THE WEAK WITH ILL-DEFINED FNT WANDERING ACRS
IA.  CHCS TAPER OFF BY END OF WEEK AS RDG BUILDS INTO IA AND PTN
AMPLIFIES SO HAVE LEFT SAT DRY FOR TIME BEING.  PD LOOKS TO START
FAIRLY WRM WITH FA IN WRM SECTOR...BUT LOWERED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO
EARLY BASED ON CONSENSUS H85 TEMPS AND PROJECTED MIXING...STILL ABV
NML.  FNTL PSN SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE IN LATER PDS SO LEANED CLOSER
TO CLIMO.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SRN ONE TO TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES 23Z-11Z.

&&

SMALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
252 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

IAZ081>086-092>097-052000-
ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
252 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER
AND 75 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPS...THEY MAY REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND PRODUCE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AS THE EVENTS NEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED AT VARIOUS TIMES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-052000-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-
252 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IOWA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FROM 7 PM THROUGH 3 AM. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 65 MPH
WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AS THE EVENTS NEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH 3 AM. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED AT VARIOUS TIMES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
756 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             GRAND RIVER             40.82N 93.96W
06/04/2005  2.75 INCH        DECATUR            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BASEBALL HAIL BEING REPORTED NOW FROM GRAND RIVER SOUTH
            TO HIGHWAY 2 - ABOUT 6 MILES BETWEEN THE TWO.

&&

SMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
828 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             6 SW OSCEOLA            40.97N 93.86W
06/04/2005  0.88 INCH        CLARKE             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STEACHOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
832 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S EVANSDALE           40.90N 93.79W
06/04/2005  60 MPH           DECATUR            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREES BENDING TO THE GROUND FROM MOBILE NWS
            SPOTTER.

&&

SEARCY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
844 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             GRINNELL                41.74N 92.72W
06/04/2005  1.00 INCH        POWESHIEK          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
852 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     HAIL             GRINNELL                41.74N 92.72W
06/04/2005  0.88 INCH        POWESHIEK          IA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
853 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND GST     DES MOINES              41.58N 93.62W
06/04/2005  60 MPH           POLK               IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DEPUTY FIRE CHIEF ESTIMATE AT ARMY POST RD. AND FLEUR DR.

&&

SEARCY