Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT SLOWLY
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ETA40 CAPE VALUES ARE
PROGGED AT 1500 TO 2500 J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NWRN
WI. 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
STORMS AS YESTERDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. SO BELIEVE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...FEEL THAT SUPERCELLS MAY STILL
DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MAINLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. THE ETA40 HAS THIS FRONT MOVING TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS OUR
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DUE TO COLD
AIR ALOFT AND INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING. BY THEN ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
THE LOW AND FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWRD...WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WRN AND SRN MN LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS
OUR CWA ON TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS AGAIN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE
TO STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS DIFFER
WITH THE GFS TAKING A WEAKENING LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST WED
NIGHT...WHILE THE ETA KEEPS A STRONGER LOW TO OUR WEST. IT APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WONT RETURN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WDLY
SCT IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND SCTRD SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER NIGHT...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT...PRODUCING IFR-MVFR VSBYS. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WDLY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR ZONES
011>012-019>021-037>038.
WI...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR ZONES
001>004-006>009.

BERDES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
730 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-061230-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
730 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA FOR AND
BECOME MORE SCATTERED TONIGHT.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
HAIL...ALTHOUGH SEVERE WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

KFM