Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
MINNESOTA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS NOW OVER OUR WRN FCST AREA. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
WITH TIME. ETA40 MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 2000 J/KG
NORTH...TO 5000 J/KG ACROSS WISCONSIN. CURRENT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
DO SEEM TO SUPPORT THESE CAPE VALUES...ALTHOUGH ETA40 SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850MB ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES ARE FAIRLY LOW TOO...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL PER SPC. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. A WARMING TREND WILL START FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NE MN AND NW WI
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SOME IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END
OVERNIGHT...LEAVING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

BERDES/DAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2005

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-041230-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
705 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2005

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF LINE
FROM PARK RAPIDS TO GRAND RAPIDS TO SILVER BAY.  THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

STEWART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
421 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TSTM WND GST     HERMANTOWN              46.81N 92.24W
08/03/2005  60 MPH           SOUTHEAST ST. LOUI MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT INTERSECTION OF HWY 2 AND HWY 53

&&

BRANDT

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