Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
255 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE MCS WITH BOWING STRUCTURE SKIRTED
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  TRAILING
CLOUDS AND CAPPING HEAT ADVECTING IN CURRENTLY.  WARM FRONT IS
RUNNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
IOWA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN NORTH
DAKOTA... WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER.  THE PRIMARY LOW IS STILL OVER
SASKATCHEWAN...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SECONDARY LOW IS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.  CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR
THE BRAINERD LAKES TOWARD PINE COUNTY.  MUCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY
1000 J/KG OR LESS... VALUES GREATER THAN 4000 J/KG ARE COMMON TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST UNDER THE DEVELOPING CAP.

EXPECT CAP TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.  H7 TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 8 TO 14 DEG C RANGE WITH LOWER
VALUES OVER THE ARROWHEAD.  CAPPING WILL WEAKEN WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM THIS EVENING. NAM HAS VERY IMPRESSIVE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS... SR HELICITY VALUES OVER 500 M2/S2 AND MUCAPE VALUES
GROWING OVER 2000 THIS EVENING.  SO EXPECT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
FORM THIS EVENING. ANOTHER LONG-LIVED BOWING MCS IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS EVENING... APPROXIMATELY IN THE SAME LOCATION OF THIS
MORNINGS...PROBABLY A TOUCH FURTHER NORTH DUE TO WEAKER CAP.  SPC
ISSUED MODERATE RISK FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...
SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE.

BY 12Z... SYSTEM WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA.  DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.

NEXT WAVE COMES IN MONDAY.  NOT NEARLY THE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM COMPARED TO WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW.  CAPE VALUES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 1000 J/KG FOR THIS WAVE.
DID INCREASE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  BOTH GFS AND NAM
GENERALLY AGREE...BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
ALONG THIS PATH.  SEVERE WEATHER FOR MONDAY WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.

FOR THE REMAINDER FOR FORECAST PERIOD... WAVES PASS THROUGH
GENERALLY EVERY OTHER DAY... BUT APPEAR TO NOT PACK MUCH AS FAR AS
MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY... SO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW OR
NEGLIGIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...WITH THE CHC OF SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...MAINLY BEFORE 04Z. SKIES WILL
BE VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS...BUT LOOK FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 06Z WITH FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFT 12Z.

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

KFM

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