Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
245 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...FOCUS FOR FORECAST IS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND PRECIP MIDDLE OF WEEK.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DLH TO COOK.  THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAS FORMED IN
AN AREA OF GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY NEAR THE WARM
FRONT.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG
THROUGH 14Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND MVFR OR LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT TODAY
WILL BE FROM THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING FRONT INTO
WESTERN AREAS BY 18Z...DLH BY 00Z AND ACROSS EASTERN PORTION OF WI
FORECAST ARE 06Z.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL BE
UNSTABLE.  CURRENTLY...DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MESOETA INDICATE CAPES 2500-3500
WITH SURFACE LIS AT -6 TO -8.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT VERY HIGH AS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS.  THERE WILL BE GOOD FORCING WITH THE FRONT
AS MOVES EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA GIVIG THE AREA A POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH MAIN THREAT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  SWODY1 HAS
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE FRONT MOVES OUT OF FORECAST AREA...COOLER AIR MOVERS INOTO THE
REGION.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
GIVING THE AREA A POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY CONTINUING OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.  A WEAK FORNTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG
THROUGH 14Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND MVFR OR LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STORMS.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

STEWART/MELDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
708 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-171230-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
708 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.  SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY HAVE HEAVY RAIN...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THE PRIMARY THREATS OF THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY AFTER 100
PM.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

STEWART