Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
343 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS WAS FOLLOWED IN THE SHORT TERM...THEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS
WERE USED.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD...SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE FRONT WAS LOCATED IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...BACK IN SOUTH
DAKOTA. GUSTY WINDS WERE OCCURRING IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 40S IN
PARTS OF OUR MN CWA...AND MODIFIED LAPS SOUNDINGS WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE YIELD CAPES OF 900-1200 J/KG. FREEZING LEVELS
WERE 7000-8500FT...GOOD FOR HAIL AND 0-6KM SHEAR WAS 30-40KT. WE HAVE
HAD A REPORT OF LARGE HAIL WITH A STORM EARLIER...AND A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE YET THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY MORNING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHLAND.

A WARM FRONT STARTS TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION(WAA) AND THETA-E
ADVECTION DEVELOPS INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
MOVE INTO MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ETA IS QUICKER MOVING THIS
LOW THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE WE WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER GFS. WE WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO THE WEEKEND.

HAVE USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER ETA/NGM VALUES ON SATURDAY. GFS SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...SO THOUGHT THE GFS FORECAST WAS TO
COLD.

.AVIATION....THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD AND ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

MELDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
730 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2005

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-061230-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
730 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  NONE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

IN ADDITION THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENITE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

EOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     HAIL             15 S HOYT LAKES         47.30N 92.15W
05/05/2005  1.75 INCH        EAST CENTRAL ST. L MN   PUBLIC

            THE MOOSE LINE CAFE NEAR MAKINEN REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED
            HAIL.

&&

TINGLER