Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
245 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN IS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SFC LOW
COMPLEX IN THE DAKOTAS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS
WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR LATE JUNE INTO THE FA TONIGHT.
NUMEROUS TSRA EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SPREADING FROM W TO E.
SOME TSRA TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS...BUT EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FA
VERY STABLE. IT WILL TAKE THE SFC LOW TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE FA BEFORE
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ENOUGH TO SEE ANY SEVERE TSRA. WILL
REMOVE THE MENTION OF SEVERE FROM THE GRIDS/ZONES DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. THE LOW THEN SLOWLY CROSSES INTO ONTARIO WITH THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FA. THE DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TO
REPRESENT THE DRY SLOT IMPACTING THE FA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...CAA
AND WRAPAROUND -SHRA WILL COVER THE FA. THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NE
ONTARIO BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE FA EARLY...
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

QUIET WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. AFTER A COOL
START...WAA BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPS.
THE HIGH MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT
ROUND OF TSRA PROGGED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTS THE FA.

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

GSF/DAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1206 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-301230-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
1206 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PINE CITY
TO TRADE LAKE. MAJOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

GSF