Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
238 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
SEVERITY.

THE MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT HAD SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH LOW POSITION AND QPF AMOUNTS. A BLEND WAS USED...LEANING A BIT
MORE TOWARD THE GFS SURFACE LOW SOLUTION...AND HPC/ETA QPF.

SURFACE AND 850MB WARM FRONTS WERE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND A LINE OF SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH STRONGER STORMS WERE
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW.

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE
BEEN UNDER CLOUDS TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME. THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THOUGH...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70. PRECIP WATER VALUES WERE RUNNING 123-191 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 12Z INL/MPX/ABR/BIS SOUNDINGS.

LOW LEVEL JET(LLJ) WILL CRANK UP TONIGHT...AND WDL PROFILER SHOWING
30 KNOTS AT 19Z. 850MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50-55 KNOTS BY
06Z...AND HELP INCREASE THE SHEAR AND CONTINUE TO CREATE FORCING FOR
STORMS. DEEP SHEAR IS INITIALLY LACKING OVER OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT QUICKLY INCREASES THIS EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASING...AS WELL AS MID LEVEL FLOW. 0-1KM SHEAR BECOMES QUITE
IMPRESSIVE THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS BY 06Z
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WESTERN
ZONES...WHICH IS CLOSER TO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND BEST INSTABILITY.
STORM MOTION TONIGHT IS NORTHEAST.

SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS SOME HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND
WILL INITIALLY CONFINE THE MENTION TO OUR WESTERN ZONES. STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP SEVERE THREAT GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...RATHER THAN JUST THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
OUR CWA. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE LLJ WEAKENING
DURING THE MORNING. DEWPOINTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
POOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN THERE MAY BE A BREAK ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS TO COMMIT
TO A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY...CONTINUING THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

MELDE/KFM

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