Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
400 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEM IS EXACT TIMING ON PRECIPITATION
EVENTS.  ALOFT, RIDGING IS TENDING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AS HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE.  HOWEVER, A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE
RIDGE AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE BEHIND BUFFALO RIDGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH WARMING BEHIND A SURFACE HIGH, DROPPING STABILITIES TODAY.
ATTM WE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PRIND THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT RESULT IN EITHER BIG HAIL OR
STRONG WINDS.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THE LAST SHORT WAVE
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WILL HAVE PASSED EAST, CUTTING OFF RAINFALL
EARLY FRIDAY.  GENERALLY, THIS FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN SHIRT-SLEEVE WEATHER, IN SPITE OF PERIODS OF
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT, THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
MORE FREQUENT AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BLACK HILLS THIS WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO, THEN THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED COLORADO LOW WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY, ALONG WITH
THE LOW, WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH SHOWERY AND VERY CHILLY WEATHER,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE BEGINNING MONDAY.  THE HIGH
WILL REMOVE MOISTURE, ENDING RAINFALL AND CLOUDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL RETURN RAIN TO THE AREA AS IT
APPROACHES THURSDAY.

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPAWN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.  MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

EOM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
730 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2005

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-061230-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
730 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  NONE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

IN ADDITION THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENITE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

EOM