Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
257 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS ARE ON TSRA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 18Z
SFC ANALYSIS PLACED SFC LOW CENTERS IN MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD INTO EASTERN ND. SATELLITE AND 88-D IMAGERY INDICATE
TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME
ELEVATED TSRA TRYING TO GET GOING IN NW QUAD OF THE FA. LIMITING
FACTOR IN THESE STORMS IS THEY ARE IN AXIS OF WARM AIR ALOFT...SO A
GOOD CAP IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF SUN TODAY...ATMOSPHERE
HAS UNDERGONE EXCELLENT DESTABILIZATION WITH SFC BASED LIS AROUND
-10C AND SBCAPES FROM 3000 TO 5000 J/KG PER 19Z LAPS DATA.

EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. TSRA WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH TIME...SOME MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS. SEE
SWODY1 FOR GREATER DETAIL. TSRA WILL END FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND COLD FRONT EXITS. KEPT A SMALL POP IN
FAR EASTERN WI FA DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. A QUIET FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE ON TAP AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES THROUGH.

NEXT ROUND OF TSRA EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE FA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FA REMAINS
UNDER UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE ROCKIES AND BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. SO KEPT WITH SMALL OR LOW POPS
THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU TAF PD EXCEPT BRIEF PDS OF MVFR
OVRNGT IN ISOLD TSTMS.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

GSF/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
804 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-241230-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
804 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

BERDES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
912 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RAY                     48.41N 93.21W
06/23/2005                   KOOCHICHING        MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 TREES DOWN AS WELL AS BRANCHES 10 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

0817 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KABETOGAMA              48.44N 93.03W
06/23/2005                   NORTHWEST ST. LOUI MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN IN THE KABETOGAMA AND ASH
            RIVER TRAIL AREAS.

&&

BRANDT