Tornado Warning 54, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
254 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM AGAIN CENTERS AROUND SEVERE POTENTIAL, WHEN
AND WHERE IT INITIATES, AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST.

WILL GO WITH HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OF 50 PERCENT DOWN NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER, WITH 40 POPS NORTH.  THINK THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
BE HAIL TO 1.25 INCHES AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.  HOWEVER, WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS NORTH TO NEAR GBD, THEN
BACKING TO EASTERLY NEAR RSL AND HYS, EXPECT THIS SELY FLOW TO RUN
INTO AN SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM THE THE NORTHWEST AND
POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE SHEAR PROFILE BY 03Z OR SO.  THUS,
TORNADOES CANT BE RULED OUT IN THE HYS, WAKEENEY, LACROSSE, NESS
CITY, AND DIGHTON AREAS.  WILL MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE IN ALL AREAS
TONIGHT.  SPC STILL HAS ALL OF OUR AREA IN A MODERATE RISK, AND
CANT ARGUE WITH THAT. DDC 18Z SOUNDING SHOWED THE CAP WOULD SOON
BE BROKE, A LARGE POSITIVELY BUOYANT AREA, A LIFTED INDEX OF -6 AND
A RATHER HIGH WEB BULB ZERO HEIGHT OF 12,600 FEET.  THIS WILL TAKE A
50 DBZ CORE OF AT LEAST 36,000 TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL.

AS FOR FRIDAY, PLAN TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE GOING FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING FOR STRONG STORMS.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE RIDGE
ADVERTISED BY THE ETA AND NGM BUILDS IN AND SUPPRESSES ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  EVEN IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT EARLY,
EXPECT MORE CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  AGAIN WINDS WILL
BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHICH LEADS TO UPSLOPE AND THE NORTHERN CWA
WILL JUST MAKE THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS, AND THE ROW OF COUNTIES NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA LINE MAKING THE MID 80S.  DEBATED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO
KEEP SLIGHT POPS GOING FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT SINCE UPSLOPE SOMETIMES
RESULTS IN ENOUGH MIXING TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO, KEPT 16-20
POPS IN PLACE.  THEN ON SATURDAY, LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS, AND NO
PRECIPITATION.

DAYS 3-7...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN OF A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, ALTHOUGH
SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS HAVE BEGUN TO APPEAR.  THE GFS,
ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ALL AMPLIFY A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.  BY TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE LATEST GFS WEAKENS THE RIDGE A BIT
AS A SHORTWAVE COMES OVER IT AND UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  IF THIS
WOULD VERIFY, IT COULD HELP PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DOWN AROUND
THE KS/NEBR BORDER.  STILL, 700MB TEMPS ARE FAIRLY HIGH OVER OUR
AREA FOR TUES AND WED AND MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST.  IN ADDITION, THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, ALONG WITH THE
ENSEMBLES, CONTINUE TO KEEP THE RIDGE WELL INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND THINK
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL COME AS ALL THE ENSEMBLES
MEANS BEGIN TO BRING THE WESTERLIES FURTHER SOUTH AFTER DAY 7.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 C.  NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DOWNSLOPE, BUT WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE MOST PART.  MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS, BUT OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKED
TO BE ON TRACK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  84  62  92 /  50   0  20   0
GCK  64  83  63  93 /  40   0  20   0
EHA  61  86  59  92 /  40   0  20   0
LBL  64  86  60  92 /  50   0  20   0
HYS  65  82  65  91 /  40   0  20   0
P28  67  86  66  93 /  50   0  20   0
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...NONE.
&&

12/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1233 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-171000-
ELLIS-FINNEY-HAMILTON-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-LANE-NESS-PAWNEE-RUSH-SCOTT-
TREGO-
1233 PM CDT (1133 AM MDT) THU JUN 16 2005

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.  A FEW TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER 7 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 7 PM CDT TODAY, NORTH OF A
LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO LARNED.

KSZ066-074>081-084>090-171000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HASKELL-KIOWA-MEADE-
MORTON-PRATT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-
1233 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 5 PM CDT SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM JOHNSON CITY TO DODGE CITY TO PRATT.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
614 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             7 S LAKIN               37.84N 101.26W
06/16/2005  1.75 INCH        KEARNY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MGERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
617 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HAIL             16 N SUBLETTE           37.71N 100.85W
06/16/2005  0.75 INCH        HASKELL            KS   PUBLIC

0610 PM     HAIL             9 W ENGLEWOOD           37.04N 100.15W
06/16/2005  4.25 INCH        MEADE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             DEERFIELD               37.98N 101.13W
06/16/2005  1.00 INCH        KEARNY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MGERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
621 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     HAIL             15 SSW GREENSBURG       37.40N 99.40W
06/16/2005  2.50 INCH        KIOWA              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALSO POSSIBLE ROTATION

&&

TSB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
628 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             4 NNE DEERFIELD         38.03N 101.10W
06/16/2005  0.75 INCH        KEARNY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

TSB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
644 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             BUCKLIN                 37.55N 99.63W
06/16/2005  1.75 INCH        FORD               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAKER