Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 122038
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
336 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

KSC057-122100-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-050812T2100Z/
336 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEASTERN FORD
COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

* AT 333 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR           
  CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
  UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS UP TO 
  60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUCKLIN...AND MOVING 
  NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN FORD COUNTY...
  BUCKLIN...

LAT...LON 3751 9982 3746 9956 3773 9955 3773 9965

$$

LACY

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 122047
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
346 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

KSC057-122056-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-050812T2100Z/
FORD KS-
346 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FORD COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 342 PM CDT(242 PM MDT)...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED AND 
NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH WERE STILL 
POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
BUCKLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH..

LAT...LON 3751 9982 3746 9956 3773 9955 3773 9965

$$

LACY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
MAIN QUESTION THIS CYCLE WILL BE ENDING THE ONGOING PRECIP AND
DIVINING TEMPERATURES IN THE COOLER AIR.

THE DIAGNOSTICS TODAY SHOW THE DEEPENING UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTH AMERICA WITH A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST STATES SET TO ROTATE THROUGH THE PATTERN TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THE UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED POLAR FRONT BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA
TODAY WITH SURFACE POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE AND H8 ISOTHERMAL ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF US WHILE A SURFACE
WARM TROUGH IS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

CONSIDERABLE THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY INDICATED BY AREA SOUNDINGS
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE WARM
TROUGH HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED UPPER COLD POOLS ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON TYPE PATTERN OVER NEW
MEXICO AND OLD MEXICO. THE MOISTURE FEED WITH THIS PATTERN IS
SIGNIFICANT TOO AS IT EXTENDS FROM WELL OUT INTO THE PACIFIC AND
HURRICANE FRENANDA BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

GIVEN THE ABOVE EXPECT THE MODELS TO VERIFY WITH THEIR NEAR
CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR US TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE POLAR FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
ALSO WILL LOOK FOR SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
TO TURN OFF THE FAUCET LEAVING SUNDAY DRY AND COOL.

ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD, REMOVED POPS ON SUNDAY, WARMED TEMPERATURES A
BIT FOR TOMORROW AND COOLED THEM FOR SUNDAY.

DAYS 3-7...
TROPICAL CONVECTION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND 140 E WITH SOME
INDICATION OF A DRIFT TO THE WEST. THIS CURRENT REGIME, SPLIT FLOW
BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PAC/ALASKA AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER NORTH
AMERICA HAS LINKS TO THIS CONVECTION. WITH THE FORCING REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTING WEST, ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL PERSIST, BESIDE SOME
SHORTWAVE VARIATIONS IN AMPLITUDE. WILL THEREFORE FOLLOW THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECTING REAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD TREND.

FOR THE FORECAST, THERE ARE TWO MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE THAT WILL
AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER IN SW KS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONE IS AN
UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG SOUTH OUT OF CANADA, THIS LOW SHOULD GET PICKED UP AND
EJECTED NORTHEAST ACROSS KS SOMETIME MONDAY. WILL RAISE POPS TO CHC
CATEGORY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
FINALLY, WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT COME SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS
BY AROUND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE REAMPLIFICATION OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. WILL INSERT POPS THUR NIGHT AND FRI AND WILL
COOL MAXES ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  82  59  75 /  80  80  70  10
GCK  64  81  57  71 /  70  60  50  10
EHA  64  79  58  74 /  70  60  60  10
LBL  66  81  59  75 /  80  80  70  10
HYS  67  81  58  73 /  70  60  50  10
P28  70  84  64  77 /  80  80  80  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

JOHNSON/LACY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-131000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
500 AM CDT (400 AM MDT) FRI AUG 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF A ELKHART TO LARNED LINE.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE, BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY OF
THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
113 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW MANTER             37.57N 101.93W
08/11/2005  70 MPH           STANTON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 INCH TREE BRANCH BROKEN

&&

LEE