Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 060246
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
946 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

KSC069-060300-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-050706T0300Z/
GRAY KS-
946 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN GRAY COUNTY
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 943 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF INGALLS...
AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN GRAY COUNTY...
  INGALLS...
  CIMARRON...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3798 10063 3780 10064 3774 10022 3798 10024

$$

GRZYWACZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
317 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
MAIN QUESTION IS TRACK, TIMING AND EXTENT OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A NEAR CLASSIC HIGH PLAINS NOCTURNAL MCS PATTERN PERSISTS FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT AS THE MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS MY CWA. CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION
OVER THE PANHANDLES LAYS ALONG THE +10 H7 ISOTHERM AND SHOULD
CONTINUE WORKING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WILL LEAVE SOME POPS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER FOR THIS
SYSTEM BUT THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND BLASTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MY
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WHILE THE ETA, MESOETA, RUC AND WRF ALL DO
THIS, IT TAKES THEM ALL NIGHT TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY TO GET THE SYSTEM ACROSS MY CWA. BELIEVE THAT IS FAR TOO
SLOW WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS OF
MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. WILL PUSH THE WHOLE SHOW THROUGH MY
ZONES BY MORNING.

AFTER TONIGHT, THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO TAKE OVER
CAPPING OFF THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. MAJOR QUESTION THEN IS WILL
ANY CONVECTIVE BUBBLES BE ABLE TO ERODE THE INCREASING WARM AIR
LAYER ALOFT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STORM. SPC APPEARS TO
BELIEVE THAT SOME WILL AND THAT THEY WILL EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS
FOR WEST KANSAS. I AM NOT SO SURE. SIMPLY FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL
STANDPOINT WE WOULD BE FORECASTING A SIXTH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF MCS
FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITHOUT DIGGING BACK THROUGH THE RECORDS, MY
21 YEARS ON SITE TELLS ME THAT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. I WOULD HAVE TO
ADMIT, HOWEVER, THAT IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE SO AT LEAST SOME SMALL
POPS MAY BE WARRANTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST IN CASE SOME OF THE
CONVECTION OVER THE ROCKIES GETS THIS FAR EAST.

DAYS 3-7...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES TODAY KEEPS THE ERN PACIFIC TROF IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH W/V LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING SEVERAL VISIBLE
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FURTHER UPSTREAM. OVER THE PLAINS AN
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES/WRN
HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD. AT THIS TIME BASED ON WEAK FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG/NEAR LEE TROF WHICH IS PROGGED NEAR THE CO
BORDER.

NEXT WEEK MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE REFORECAST CDC SHOWING A
RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE THE GFS/NCEP ENSEMBLE JUST
SHOWING THE RIDGE WEAKENING. EITHER CASE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
STRONGER WITH A W/NW COMPONENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SE LOW LVL
FLOW MAY SET THE STAGE AGAIN FOR SOME EVENING CONVECTION. HAVE
THEREFORE INSERTED SOME NOCTURNAL POPS OVER THE WEST TO COVER THIS
WHICH IS BASICALLY CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  85  66  92 /  70  10   0   0
GCK  62  85  65  92 /  70  10   0   0
EHA  64  89  66  91 /  50  20  30   0
LBL  62  86  66  91 /  80  10  20   0
HYS  61  86  66  93 /  40  10   0   0
P28  63  88  68  92 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...NONE.

&&

JOHNSON/BURGERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-061000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
510 AM CDT (410 AM MDT) TUE JUL 5 2005

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT, PRIMARILY
AFTER 6 PM.  INITIALLY, THE THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER
WHERE AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.  LATER IN THE EVENING
THE THREAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE LIBERAL AND A GARDEN CITY AREAS BY 8
PM WHERE THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
AND WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH.  THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT
MOVE FARTHER EAST THAN LARNED AND PRATT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 600 PM IN THE ELKHART, SYRACUSE AND
JOHNSON AREAS AND AFTER 8 PM IN THE GARDEN CITY, LAKIN AND LIBERAL AREAS.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
921 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N GARDEN CITY         38.01N 100.86W
07/05/2005  63 MPH           FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

DWATKINS