Freeze Watch 2, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO
KANSAS. THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT SW OVERNIGHT. SO
CENTRAL SHOULD BECOME CLEAR LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SKIES WILL
PROBABLY STAY CLOUDY SW OF A LINE FROM TRIBUNE TO DODGE CITY TO
P28...KEEPING LOWS WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS
TONIGHT, BUT A 8 TO 13 KT WIND AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL
TEND TO KEEP MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S AT HAYS, WAKEENEY AND SCOTT CITY. SO WE WILL ISSUE
A FROST ADV FOR THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING TO BETWEEN
20 AND 25F. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S MOST
PLACES. A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.
HIGHS SUN WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50 AT DDC...AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 BY NIGHTFALL...AND THEN SLOWLY FALL BELOW
FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT.

DECIDED TO TAKE OUT 20 POPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
RADAR AND SATELLITE.

DAYS 3-7...

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE IN THE GOING EXTENDED PERIODS.  THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE ETA80...ECMWF AND GFS ALL SUGGEST A RATHER DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST.  NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FRONTS OR UPPER WAVES CROSSING THE
AREA.  THE GFS DOES HINT AT A FRONT KIND OF BACK DOORING INTO OUR
CWA ON DAYS 6-7...BUT WILL ONLY TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH AT THIS
POINT, AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
SURROUNDING WFOS TO THE EAST HAVE 10 POPS IN THE...BUT DO NOT SEE
ANY POINT IN MENTIONING THESE LOW POPS...UNLESS 20 OR GREATER IS
WARRANTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  51  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  35  51  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  40  53  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  40  52  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  32  49  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  39  52  26  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FINCH/BURKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-231000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
500 AM CDT (400 AM MDT) SAT OCT 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTH OF A JOHNSON
TO DODGE CITY TO ST JOHN LINE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SOME CLOUDS
WILL KEEP FROST PATCHY...BUT MORE DELICATE PLANTS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S.  A KILLING FREEZE MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...DEPENDING ON IF AND HOW LONG TEMPERATURES
DROP TO 28 DEGREES.  EVEN AREAS THAT ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER
30S COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST.  STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RITTERLING