Wind Advisory 10, NWS Cheyenne, WY

000 
WWUS75 KCYS 101128
NPWCYS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
428 AM MST SAT DEC 10 2005

NEZ003-019>021-054-055-101900-
/O.CON.KCYS.WI.Y.0010.051210T1500Z-051211T0000Z/
BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF...GERING...
HARRISBURG...BRIDGEPORT...BAYARD...KIMBALL...SIDNEY
428 AM MST SAT DEC 10 2005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
MST THIS AFTERNOON...

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA
CAUTION.

$$

SOWKO

000 
WWUS75 KCYS 101745
NPWCYS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1045 AM MST SAT DEC 10 2005

NEZ003-019>021-054-055-110000-
/O.CON.KCYS.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-051211T0000Z/
BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF...GERING...
HARRISBURG...BRIDGEPORT...BAYARD...KIMBALL...SIDNEY
1045 AM MST SAT DEC 10 2005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WIND SO FAR
HAS BEEN 30 MPH AT SIDNEY AT 953 AM MST.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA
CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWUS75 KCYS 110002
NPWCYS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
502 PM MST SAT DEC 10 2005

NEZ003-019>021-054-055-110115-
/O.CAN.KCYS.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-051211T0000Z/
BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF...GERING...
HARRISBURG...BRIDGEPORT...BAYARD...KIMBALL...SIDNEY
502 PM MST SAT DEC 10 2005

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS CANCELED THE WIND
ADVISORY. THE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLIER OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SINCE THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
150 PM MST FRI DEC 9 2005

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
WITH A SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL FLOW. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS TO OUR EAST. THE BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR EAST WITH LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ESPECIALLY IN OUR NEB PANHANDLE
COUNTIES. ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE BASED WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL TEND TO INHIBIT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THE STRONG MID
LEVEL FLOW. ALSO THE SURFACE GRADIENT SAT WILL BE FROM THE WEST
WHEREAS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY...LESS
THAN OPTIMAL DIRECTIONAL ALIGNMENT. AFTER CAREFUL ANALYSIS OF THE
MODELS...MY GUT FEELING IS THAT CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY NOT WARRANT A HIGH WIND WARNING
SAT...BUT THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED INSTEAD FOR OUR NEB
PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE BY
LATE SAT AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
AREAS OF BRISK WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SUN EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.  THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AND LIKELY BEYOND...THE
MEAN RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST
HALF FOR A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.  MOST MODELS
DO POINT TO A COOLER PERIOD STARTING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE INITIAL QUESTION IS THE MOVEMENT EAST OF THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE GFS IS FASTER
WITH THE FEATURE THAN THE NAM AND IS TRENDING FASTER AS WELL.  THE
GFS TAKES THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BY 18Z MONDAY...WHILE
THE NAM KEEPS IT OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. OTHER MODELS
MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS IT SLOWLY
FILLS.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY AS THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS POSITION...KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF THE CWA.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER TO DEAL WITH WILL BE ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE 12Z GFS NOW CLOSES OFF AN UPPER
LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA 06Z WEDNESDAY WHICH IS DEEPER AND
FASTER WITH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN.  THE 12Z GFS APPEARS CLOSER TO
THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF WITH THE NOGAPS A BIT FASTER AND THE ECMWF NOT
AS DEEP.  LARGE DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND DGEX WITH THE
06Z DGEX MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN EVEN THE 12Z GFS.  FOR NOW WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE 00Z GFS WHICH IS STILL PREFERRED BY NCEP. THE
RESULTING SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE COOLER AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY BY FRIDAY.  THE 12Z GFS INDICATES
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA FRIDAY.  IF THAT PANS
OUT...THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST PARTS OF THE
CWA FRIDAY.  THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING COLD SURGE IN
EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE DRY.  THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEPICTS MORE QPF OVER THE REGION.  FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...HIGH WIND WATCH SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
     PANHANDLE.  ZONES 3..19>21..54..55.

&&

JR/WEILAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
441 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2005

NEZ001-002-WYZ059>070-101145-
SIOUX-DAWES-CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-
SNOWY RANGE-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE RANGE-
PLATTE-GOSHEN-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-PINE BLUFFS-
441 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NEZ003-019>021-054-055-101145-
BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
441 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL POSSIBLY
BECOME DAMAGING EARLY SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEE
PRODUCT (WWUS75) FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN WIND REPORTS ON SATURDAY.

SOWKO