Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
327 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

TNT...CURRENT MCS/BOW ECHO OVER OH SHOULD MAKE THE DIVE TO THE SE
EARLY THIS EVE...POSSIBLY CLIPPING PORTIONS OF SOMERSET CO WITH
SHOWERS/OUTFLOW. WL NEED TO WATCH...ALTHOUGH PROPENSITY SHOULD BE
TO STAY FURTHER TO THE SW...CLOSER TO MAX INSTABILITY...AND ALONG OR
JUST SW OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
BEGIN TO SURGE BACK TO THE NE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH DEVELOPING WSW
LLJ OF 40+ KT REDEVELOPING OVER OH...EXPECT ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO
REFIRE ALONG RETREATING BOUNDARY AFTER 07Z...WITH THE HIGHEST CHC
ACROSS FAR NW AREAS CLOSER TO 10Z-12Z. AS SUCH...INDICATED SLIGHT
CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATE. SOME INDICATIONS THAT ANY
POTENTIAL MCS THAT DEVELOPS MAY TRACK A BIT FURTHER N AND E...AND
ALSO LATER THAN LAST NIGHT/S...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK INTO A
MORE W/SW COMPONENT...AS OPPOSED TO THE NNW UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM
LAST NIGHT. FURTHER E...KEPT OUT MENTION OF POPS. AS FOR MINS...WENT
CLOSE TO MAV MOS.

TUE...KEPT IN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS N/W AREAS THROUGH
NOON...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO LIFT BACK N
AND E. GUSTY WSW WINDS IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY WILL THEN ADVECT VERY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA FOR TUE AFTN. AS FOR AFTN
POPS...KEPT A PERIOD OF DRY WX FOR THE EARLY/MID AFTN HOURS...THEN
REINTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE N/W TOWARD EVENING. HOWEVER...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MUCH OF CWA WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...WITH BEST CHC FOR ANY CONVECTION IN THE AM HOURS WITH WARM
FRONT. AS FOR HEAT INDICES...THEY MAY REACH 100-105 ACROSS SE
AREAS...AND WL ADDRESS IN AN SPS. LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
FOR HEAT INDICES >=105 F...FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE DAYS (WITH MOST AREAS
NOT HAVING REACHED THE 105 TODAY...) AND THUS WL NOT RAISE AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS FOR HEAT INDICES
GTE 115 F...AND THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF REACH. AS FOR
RECORDS...CURRENT FORECAST NUMBERS FALL JUST SHORT...SEE CLIMO
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

TUE NT...INCREASING CHC FOR TRW ACROSS NW AREAS...BUT 09Z/25 SREFS
HINTING THAT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SE OVERNIGHT.
THUS...KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS FAR SE.

WED-WED NT...FRONT SLOWS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS GRT LAKES. THUS...EXPECT
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PA WED...AND EVEN INTO WED
NT. BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. AS FOR MAX
TEMPS ON WED...WENT A BIT ABOVE MOST MOS VALUES ACROSS FAR
SE...YIELDING MORE 90F+ TEMPS. COOLER TO THE N/W...WHERE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

THU-FRI...00Z/25 MREFS HINTING AT SLOWER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF COLD
FRONT...WITH SEVERAL WAVES POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY AS
IT SINKS TOWARD OR JUST S OF MASON-DIXON LINE. AT THIS TIME...WL
FOLLOW CLOSELY TO HPC GUIDANCE...AND KEEP CHC POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS
THROUGH THU...WITH HIGHEST POPS TO THE S/E. ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
AREAS...WL TRY TO INDICATE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE AM HOURS ON THU. FOR
THU NT-FRI...WL KEEP CHC POPS FOR THU NT...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS FAR S/SE FOR FRI AM. FOR NORTHERN AREAS...WL KEEP OUT MENTION
OF POPS FOR FRI. AS FOR TEMPS...AGAIN WL FOLLOW CLOSE TO...OR
PERHAPS JUST A BIT ABOVE HPC NUMBERS FOR MAXES.

SAT-SUN NT...SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR...AND LESS HUMID WITH MAX
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF N/W...TO
LOWER-MID 80S ACROSS FAR S/E. AS FOR MINS...WITH PWATS PROGGED TO
FALL TO -1 TO -2 SD RANGE....COULD SEE SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NW
AREAS...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS FAR SE FOR SAT AND SUN AM.

MON...SOME MREF MEMBERS ALLOW MOISTURE TO CREEP NORTHWARD ALONG
APPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER MS
VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...WL KEEP POPS OUT...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO ADD
SLIGHT CHC TO SW AREAS IF MORE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...

ATMOSPHERE STILL RECOVERING FROM MCS EARLY THIS MORNING.  CIGS NOW
VFR WHILE SOME MVFR VSBYS CONTINUE IN HAZE...BUT THESE WILL IMPROVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA...BUT BEST CAPE/LEAST CAP REMAINS TO OUR WEST.  SO SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF A TSTORM NEAR KJST/KAOO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUE WILL BE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.  AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIPS EASTWARD...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF IT MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST.  EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TUE INTO WED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY GUSTY WINDS IN
TSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REC HIGHS FOR TUE 7/26...
KMDT...100/1966
KIPT...98/1934

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SPS FOR HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ACROSS LOWER/MID SUSQ VALLEY TUE
AFTN/EVE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...KL/RXR/PH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
514 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-260913-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
514 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS EARLY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT.

.THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

PAZ026>028-034>036-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-260525-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-FRANKLIN PA-
FULTON PA-HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-
SNYDER PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-UNION PA-YORK PA-
335 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...CREATING
HEAT INDICES OF OVER 100 DEGREES.  THESE VERY MUGGY AND HOT
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNCOMFORTABLE.

STAY INDOORS...ESPECIALLY IN AIR-CONDITIONED BUILDINGS.  IF YOU MUST
WORK OR PLAY OUTDOORS...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR
INDOORS...AND DRINK PLENTY OF NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES TO KEEP COOL.

THE HEAT INDEX IS AN APPARENT TEMPERATURE...OR WHAT IT FEELS LIKE
OUTSIDE.  THE HEAT INDEX IS A COMBINATION OF THE AIR TEMPERATURE AND
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR.  IF THE HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED TO
GO OVER 105 DEGREES FOR TWO OR MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE...AT
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE...ALL IN LOWER CASE.

DANGELO/KL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
521 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

PAZ033-252215-
SOMERSET-
521 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING SOMERSET COUNTY...

AT 509 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LATROBE TO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CENTERVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR JENNERSTOWN AROUND 610 PM AND SEVEN
SPRINGS AROUND 615 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.