Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THICK MID CLOUD DECK HAMPERED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY ACRS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND GREATLY
DIMINISHED THE SEVERE TSRA THREAT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR LONDON ONTARIO...THROUGH NW OHIO.

WEAK TSRA TRYING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN PENN
WHERE LLVL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO RECOVER UNDER
GRADUALLY COOLING MID/UPR LEVEL TEMPS AND INCREASING UPR DIVERGENCE
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET SLIDES EAST FROM OHIO.
THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE EASILY EXCEEDED UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AROUND NOON. THE PROBLEM IN THAT AREA IS THE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELD
AND MILDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WAS HELPING TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH
IN THE PULSE TYPE STORMS.

FOR THE EXTENDED INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SPREAD
A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND REFRESHINGLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH AS SFC DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. MAX TEMPS
SAT AND SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 2-5 DEG BELOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER THE WESTERN MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL
REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCHING UP
TO THE 50S...AND LOWER 60S SE AS THE HIGH CENTER SLIPS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA. LIMITED THE LOW
POP FOR A SHRA OR TSRA TO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE SE...WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NW DURING THE DAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (SIMILAR TO THIS
WEEKENDS) MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT IS ENTERING NWRN PA...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...VFR AND A DRIER BREEZE
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RESULT. SATURDAY LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY..BREEZY
AND MUCH LESS HUMID. SHOULD BE VFR EVERYWHERE.

IN THE INTERIM...PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE. SCATTERED STORMS FIRING NOW OVER SERN PA IN THE AREA WHERE
MOST SUNSHINE AND BEST MOISTURE HAVE COMBINED. COULD SEE A GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM INTO THE EVENING FROM ABOUT IPT SOUTHWARD. EXPECT ANY
LESS THAN VFR CONDITIONS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

FURTHER WEST MORE SHOWERS/THUNDER TRYING TO FORM IN THE INSTABILITY
AXIS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE HEADING
INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH A RIDGE AND A WEAKLY
DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ESTABLISHED OVER CTRL PA BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND THE LEE SIDE TROF FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER ERN PA. I WOULD
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS TO REMAIN FAST MOVING AND LESS THAN
SEVERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...LACORTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
259 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-020652-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
259 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION...STARTING LATE THIS MORNING IN THE WEST...AND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST.  THE THREAT WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN
THE WEST AND PERHAPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.  A
LESSER THREAT EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL.  TORNADOES ARE NOT LIKELY TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1140 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-012330-
ADAMS-BEDFORD-BLAIR-CAMBRIA-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-COLUMBIA-CUMBERLAND-
DAUPHIN-ELK-FRANKLIN-FULTON-HUNTINGDON-JUNIATA-LANCASTER-LEBANON-
MCKEAN -MIFFLIN-MONTOUR-NORTHERN CENTRE-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN
LYCOMING-NORTHUMBERLAND-PERRY-POTTER-SCHUYLKILL-SNYDER-SOMERSET-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-TIOGA-
UNION-WARREN-YORK-
1140 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER.

A SLIGHT RISK EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...BUT PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
WINDS FIELDS SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND WILL BE STRONGER.

MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO..PENNSYLVANIA BORDER
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STRETCH OF INTERSTATE 81 FROM POTTSVILLE TO
HARRISBURG...CHAMBERSBURG AND GREENCASTLE.

AN AREA OF THICK MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDDLE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM...HELPING TO DECREASE THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE
WEST...AND PERHAPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL COME IN THE FORM
OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. A LESSER THREAT EXISTS FOR
LARGE HAIL TO FALL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE...AT
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE...ALL IN LOWER CASE.

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
412 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

PAZ005-012115-
MCKEAN-
412 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST MCKEAN COUNTY...

LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
MCKEAN COUNTY THROUGH 510 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS BETWEEN KANE AND MOUNT JEWETT WILL BE MOST PRONE TO THESE
STORMS.

FORECASTER: KL