Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
YET ANOTHER UPDATE FOR WW415 FOR SE COUNTIES TIL 8 PM.  WW413
CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 124 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO REWORK WORDING AND POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY.  WW413 CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM...AND ADDITIONAL TSTORMS
ALREADY DEVEOPING ALONG NEXT SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN W PA
WILL BRING ROUND 2 OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 945 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #413.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 320 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
AFTER WHAT HAS BEEN A QUIET SPRING FOR SEVERE WEATHER THUS
FAR...CENTRAL PA WILL HAVE ITS BEST CHANCE SO FAR THIS SEASON FOR
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. MOISTURE NOT A
PROBLEM... AS SFC DEWPOINTS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
DEEP LAYER PWATS 1.5. RESULTING MODEL CAPES EXCEED 2500 J/KG*2
IN BOTH NAM/GFS BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS OVERDONE IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THINK 2000 J/KG*2 IS A GOOD UPPER LIMIT.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS ORGANIZED INTO LINES WITH
WIND GUSTS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ALONG WITH HAIL.
MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
THESE STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE CAPE THINK THE STAGE IS SET
FOR AN ACTIVE DAY OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PA.

CONVECTION CURRENTLY DYING OVER NORTHWEST PA WITH AN IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STILL EVIDENT JUST EAST OF PBZ EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO NEAR KBUF. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE NEW CONVECTION BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FWC MOS MAX TEMPS APPEAR
SUPERIOR TO MAV THIS MORNING...AS MOST AREAS WILL START OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY. SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY FLIRT WITH 90 BEFORE STORMS MOVE IN LATER
TODAY.

LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
UPPER TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT/TROF ACROSS THE REGION
BY TONIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY LATE
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS ON TUESDAY WITH 850 TEMPS
AGAIN WARMING TO +18C...SO ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY IS IN STORE
ON TUESDAY.  BUT GIVEN THE INCREASING RIDGING/CAP AND LACK OF AN
AVAILABLE TRIGGER...THINK TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET DESPITE PWATS
BUILDING WELL OVER 1.5.

REMAINDER OF WEEK WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST...THE AREA IS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORTWAVE ENCROACHMENT FROM THE WEST WHICH COULD
EASILY INITIATE MAINLY AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION ON ANY AFTERNOON
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TRUE SUMMER WEATHER IS FINALLY HERE.

AVIATION...
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WIDESPREAD LIGHT HAZE AND FOG WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PD WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.
ISOLD IFR VIS IN FOG/HAZE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN PRODUCING SCT MVFR VIS AND CIGS WITH ISOLD
IFR CONDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
334 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-061727-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
334 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ACT ON VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATEST STORM THREATS
WILL BE STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1221 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SHEFFIELD               41.70N 79.03W
06/06/2005                   WARREN             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0955 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KANE                    41.66N 78.81W
06/06/2005                   MCKEAN             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...INCLUDING TREE ON HOUSE AND CAR.
            PEA SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO REPORTED AND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN
            WITHIN ONE HOUR.

1015 AM     TSTM WND DMG     RIDGWAY                 41.43N 78.73W
06/06/2005                   ELK                PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

1037 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ELDRED                  41.96N 78.38W
06/06/2005                   MCKEAN             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN...PONDING ON ROADS.

1108 AM     TSTM WND DMG     COUDERSPORT             41.77N 78.01W
06/06/2005                   POTTER             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SERVERAL TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN COUDERSPORT AND
            SHINGLESTOWN.

1145 AM     HAIL             5 S WELLSBORO           41.67N 77.30W
06/06/2005  0.75 INCH        TIOGA              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN MIDDLEBURY CENTER.

1148 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     MANSFIELD               41.81N 77.08W
06/06/2005                   TIOGA              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN GENESSE...HARRISON...AND WESTFIELD.
            NO TREES DOWN NEAR FUNNEL SITE AT MANSFIELD.

1155 AM     HAIL             7 W BELLEFONTE          40.91N 77.90W
06/06/2005  0.88 INCH        CENTRE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR JACKSONVILLE ROAD.
            SEVERAL TREES AND WIRES DOWNED THROUGHOUT BELLEFONTE.

1208 PM     HAIL             WILLIAMSPORT            41.24N 77.02W
06/06/2005  1.00 INCH        LYCOMING           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MBE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
100 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

PAZ028-036-057>059-063>065-061830-
ADAMS-CUMBERLAND-DAUPHIN-FRANKLIN-JUNIATA-LEBANON-SCHUYLKILL-YORK-
100 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT YORK...FRANKLIN...CUMBERLAND...
LEBANON...DAUPHIN...JUNIATA...SCHUYLKILL AND ADAMS COUNTIES...

AT 1258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF
DANVILLE TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SELINSGROVE TO 18 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SELINSGROVE TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHAMBERSBURG...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR ROXBURY...COLONEL DENNING
STATE PARK AROUND 110 PM...UPPER STRASBURG...NEWBURG AROUND 115 PM...
ORRSTOWN AROUND 120 PM...PILLOW AROUND 125 PM...SHIPPENSBURG...
NEWVILLE...MILLERSBURG AND BLOSERVILLE AROUND 130 PM.

A 10 TO 20 MINUTE PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

EXPECT INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES OR STAY IN THE OPEN WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS.

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
115 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

PAZ064-065-061815-
ADAMS-YORK-
115 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT YORK AND ADAMS COUNTIES...

AT 108 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CARLISLE...MOVING EAST AT 5
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR DILLSBURG AROUND 140 PM...
FRANKLINTOWN AROUND 145 PM AND LAKE MEADE AROUND 205 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

RHG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
117 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     HAIL             MONTOURSVILLE           41.25N 76.92W
06/06/2005  0.75 INCH        LYCOMING           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E FOREST HILL         40.97N 76.95W
06/06/2005                   UNION              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ON RT 192 JUST EAST OF FORREST HILL.

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW COLUMBIA            41.04N 76.88W
06/06/2005                   UNION              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN WINFIELD. TREES FELL ON HOUSE IN
            NEW COLUMBIA.

1258 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PICTURE ROCKS           41.28N 76.71W
06/06/2005                   LYCOMING           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

MBE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

PAZ035-036-061845-
FRANKLIN-FULTON-
145 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN AND FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 139 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES EAST OF BREEZEWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR FANNETTSBURG...FORT LOUDON AROUND
155 PM...WILLOW HILL AROUND 205 PM...ST. THOMAS AROUND 215 PM...UPPER
STRASBURG...ROXBURY AROUND 220 PM...CHAMBERSBURG AROUND 230 PM AND
ORRSTOWN AROUND 235 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

RHG

FORECASTER:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
153 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

PAZ024-033-034-062000-
BEDFORD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
153 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND AFFECT
SOMERSET...BEDFORD AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES THROUGH 4 PM...

AT 150 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF
BLAIRSVILLE TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF LATROBE TO 5 MILES WEST OF
CONNELLSVILLE TO 12 MILES WEST OF MORGANTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR SEVEN SPRINGS AROUND 250 PM...
VINTONDALE AROUND 255 PM...WESTMONT...ELIM...BROWNSTOWN AROUND 300
PM...NANTY-GLO...TIRE HILL...JOHNSTOWN...JEROME AROUND 305 PM AND
VINCO AROUND 310 PM.

A 20 MINUTE PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND UP TO ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

EXPECT FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THESE
STORMS. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES OR STAY IN THE OPEN WHEN
LIGHTNING THREATENS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION UNTIL 6 PM
EDT. THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

LAMBERT