Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS State College, PA

000 
WWUS51 KCTP 292320
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
619 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

PAC055-292345-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-051129T2345Z/
FRANKLIN-
619 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EST
FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 614 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM AMBERSON VALLEY TO CHAMBERSBURG TO GREENCASTLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 4006 7801 3984 7797 3972 7801 3982 7749
      4011 7755 4022 7765

$$

FORECASTER: MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
WIND SHIFT JUST CAME THRU THE OFFICE.

STILL EXPECTING THE BROAD N-S PRECIP SHIELD THAT SPANS MOST OF MY
CWA TO CONTINUE SLIDING EWRD THRU THE EVENING...AND BY 00Z...IT
SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE WEST AND BY MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. NARROW
RIBBON OF HIGHER REFL OVER WRN COS ATTM IS THE WIND SHIFT LINE
PORTRAYED NICELY BY THE WINDS BACKING FROM SSE TO SSW. SOME ISOLD
THUNDER IN THE WARM SECTOR...SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF IT
TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS STILL KINDA GUSTY
AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT/FRONT...BUT NOT ADVSRY (40+ KTS) CRITERIA.
THE WINDS ARE NOT QUITE SO GUSTY TO THE WEST OF THE LINE...MAINLY
DUE TO LESS VERTICAL MIXING...AS LLVL FLOW VEERS A BIT FROM SFC TO
8H.

TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE WEST AND MID 40S IN THE FAR
EASTERN ZNS...WHERE THE CLOUDS/RAIN HANG ON THE LONGEST. WINDS DO
LINE UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR OF THE BIG OCCUSION/DRY
SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. BUT...THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.

MAINLY DRY DAY IN STORE FOR WED...ONLY CHC PRECIP WILL BE UP IN THE
FAR NW MTS. TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY OR DIP A BIT THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TEMPS WILL GET COLD AND STAY COLD AS POLAR VORTEX SETTLES IN AGAIN.
HOWEVER...SOME TEMP CONTINUITY CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED...AS BITTER
COLD OF PREVIOUS MED RANGE PROGS FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE BEEN MODERATED
A BIT.  STILL...WITH COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKES...THE LK EFF
SNOW MACHINE WILL CRANK UP FOR THURS/FRI. MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT ON
WED NITE/THURS SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WITH WIND PROFILE
UNFAVORABLE TO GET MUCH LK EFF SNOW INTO OUR REGION.

BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE FRIST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

WE SHOULD STILL BE TO THE COLD SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE PROGGED
TO ROLL W-E JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD SPELL FROZEN (OR EVEN
PERHAPS FREEZING) PRECIP FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WRAP AROUND
SH SN POSS IN NW HALF THEN LATE MON AND TUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PD
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY
RAIN.

PREVAILING MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN UPSLOPE
FOG VIA A WESTERLY FLOW OF COOLER MOIST AIR WILL OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT
10Z WED BEFORE ENOUGH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
LIFT CEILINGS AND IMPROVE VSBYS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY A NORTH...SOUTH BELT OF STRONG
WINDS (60+ KTS AT 5000 FEET MSL) SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL JUST STARTING TO GET A LITTLE HIGH...AND MAY START TO
CAUSE A FEW FLOOD WORRIES SOON...AS MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP HAS
STAYED TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH UP TO THIS POINT. SO...WILL CONTINUE
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST AND NORTH...AND EVEN EXPAND IT
EASTWARD INTO THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION - BUT NOT INTO THE LOWER
SUSQ - WHERE RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN APPRICIABLE TODAY. WE STILL
EXPECT SOME FLOODING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING - MAINLY MINOR
PROBLEMS BUT SOME MAY GET WORSE THAN /MINOR/. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
BE IN AREAS THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE PRECIP FAIRLY WELL
(HIGHER FFG VALUES) BUT THE GROUND IS GETTING COLD. THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT. LATEST RIVER FCSTS
KEEP ALL GAGES BELOW FLOOD STAGES...AND ONLY A FEW REACH THEIR
CAUTIONARY STAGES. SEE THE LATEST RVDCTP AND AHPS PAGES FOR THE
BEST DETAILS ON THE LARGER RIVERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-
042-045-046-049>053-058 UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT
HYDROLOGY...DANGELO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
504 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-301015-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
504 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATER
TODAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. EARLY THIS MORNING...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY EXCEED 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS EVENING. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS NORMALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.