Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES AND SEVERE TSTORM WATCH 849 NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. WINDS BECOMING GUSTIER BEHIND LINE OF SHOWERS NOW IN CENTRAL
PA...BUT BIG SHOW WILL COME WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIND TRANSPORT TO THE
SURFACE WILL BECOME MUCH MORE EFFICIENT AT FROPA AND 850MB WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL...SO ANTICIPATE MORE WIDESPREAD WIND
GUSTS IN THE 40-50MPH RANGE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOCAL GUSTS
POTENTIALLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS IN STRONG CONVECTION CELLS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 306 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

COLD FRONT AT 06Z WAS STILL CHUGGING THRU ILLINOIS. LATEST MESO ANAL
SHOWS SQUALL LINE ENTERING WRN INDIANA. 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF ETA
AND GFS COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE FRONT TO BE ENTERING WRN PA
AROUND 18Z AND SPEEDING THRU MOST OF MY FCST AREA BY 00Z.
INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING IN PLACE FOR A COOL SEASON SEVERE/HIGH
WIND EVENT.

INSTABILITY TODAY WILL BE MODEST BUT WIND FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BE
QUITE STRONG SO ANY MIXING WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE
REGION. STILL A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER A COHERENT SQUALL LINE CAN
DEVELOP INTO THE STATE OR IF WE SEE THE STRONG WINDS DEVELOP ONLY IN
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MREF SHOWED SOME
IMPRESSIVE...FOR THE SEASON...CAPES ASSOC WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION. BUT THEY DID NOT REDEVELOP THE CAPES AS THE FRONT ENTERED
PA. GFS AND HIGH RES ONLY MANAGE TO PUSH LIS TO JUST BELOW ZERO.
ETA SHOWS CAPES BETWEEN ABOUT 500 AND 800J ON AVERAGE AT THE HEIGHT
OF HEATING. WITH A STRONG JET EXIT REGION PUNCHING INTO THE
REGION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVELS RESPONDING RAPIDLY WITH THE
A SWLY LLJ ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50KT SURGING INTO THE STATE.
ANOMALY PROGS SHOW THIS AS ABOUT 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL AND IT
HELPS PUSH PRECIP WATERS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. GFS AND ETA STILL SHOW A
STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISE SHOOTING ACROSS THE REGION LATER
IN THE DAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SCENARIOS IS THE
TENDENCY FOR THE NEW ETA TO ROUND OUT THE SFC TROF ONCE
AGAIN...LEADING TO BROADER AREAS OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND LESS
FOCUSED ASCENT AHEAD AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS STILL HAS
MORE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE COLD AIR...LOOKING SLIGHTLY
MORE ANAFRONT-ISH...RESULTING IN TIGHTER ASCENT NEAR THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPER SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS.

FOR NOW HAVE THE WIND ADVISORY OUT THRU 00Z..STARTING LATE MORNING.
WE MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY AT THE ONSET BUT WILL LEAVE THE TIMING AS
IS SINCE MODELS SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. WILL PROBABLY START TO
SEE THE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE RIDGES EVEN BEFORE THE ACTUAL STRONGEST
WINDS ARRIVE WITH OR NEAR THE FRONT. OTHER QUESTION IS IF WE WENT
FAR ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING. ACTUAL TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE
TO BE EXAMINED LATER...BUT THINK GUSTY WINDS THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LA CORTE

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

LATE WEEK SOLUTION STILL BEING BOUNCED AROUND BY EACH ENSUING MODEL
RUN. NEW GFS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA THU
HINTING THAT IT COULD SLOW DOWN OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. 18Z
MREF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BUILDS THE SFC RIDGE IN QUICKLY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK ENDING THE THREAT FOR LINGERING PRECIP. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY HIGH...I DIDNT DELVE INTO THE EXTENDED TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES. WITH THE CURRENT TROF MAKING A QUICK VISIT...AND THE WORST
OF IT SHEARING OUT TO OUR NORTH...NO REAL INCURSIONS OF COLD AIR
SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS ANY TIME SOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT
WANDER VERY FAR FROM SEASONAL NORMS AS A RESULT.

LA CORTE

AVIATION...

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON TAP. WILL BE MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY
UNTIL LATE MORNING WEST...LATE AFT EAST. LOW OVER PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE. STILL THINK BEST CHC OF HIGH
WINDS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT MANY PARAMETERS IN PLACE OR COMING INTO PLACE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS...DRY PUNCH...STRONG WINDS...AND STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...TT INDEX OVER 50...AND DECENT SRH.

DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...GIVEN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...AIRMASS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SC FROM LATE EVENING...INTO EARLY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE CWA...AS WINDS LINE UP.

ANOTHER WARMUP FOR WED...ENJOY.

MARTIN

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-
042 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
448 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-071000-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
448 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS DURING
THE DAY. SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1232 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

PAZ004-061900-
WARREN-
1232 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WARREN COUNTY THROUGH 2 PM EST...

AT 1229 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES WEST OF TITUSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 60 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR GRAND VALLEY AROUND
1245 PM...SPRING CREEK...COLUMBUS...GARLAND...TIDIOUTE AROUND 1250
PM...LOTTSVILLE...BEAR LAKE AROUND 1255 PM...YOUNGSVILLE...CHAPMAN
STATE PARK AROUND 100 PM AND SUGAR GROVE AROUND 105 PM.

A 10 TO 15 MINUTE PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS
STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL
ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY...AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF WARREN COUNTY...INCLUDING
TIDIOUTE...WARREN AND SHEFFIELD...BETWEEN 130 PM AND 2 PM EST.

FORECASTER: LAMBERT