Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
536 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FOR NW AREAS AS WELL. TREES
DOWN IN WARREN COUNTY JUST A FEW MINUTES AGO.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 411 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
SPC WILL BE ISSUING SVR BOX 824 ANY SECOND NOW. WILL UPDATE WITH
WORDING AS NEEDED FOR NRN TIER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 201 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOTS OF STUFF TO DO THIS MORNING...AS FRONT IS CHARGING INTO THE
WEST...WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME POSSIBLE THUNDER. MOST AREAS
WILL NOT HEAR THUNDER...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT OUT. CATG
POPS IN ORDER FOR ALL AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR LWR SUSQ...AS
DYNAMICS LACKING AND DOWNSLOPE MIGHT TAKE OVER QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. WILL HOLD THE COURSE THERE...THO AND KEEP POPS 80 OR
BETTER.

WINDS HAVE BEEN UNUSUALLY BREEZY TONIGHT AND WILL KICK UP EVEN
MORE AS THE FRONT PASSES. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 3KFT WINDS
NEARING 60 KTS OVER KJST THIS MORNING...BUT BELIEVE THAT IS
OVERDONE. THE DIR SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW KFT SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
KEEP THAT STUFF (IF IT IS THAT STRONG) FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE
SFC. WILL THEREFORE JUST MENTION HIGHER END GUSTS (40-45 MPH) IN
THE ZONES...BUT STAY JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (46 MPH).
TWINGS AND SMALL LIMBS MAY GET BROKEN OFF...BUT IT IS LATE SEPT
WILL ISSUE AN SPS ABOUT THE GUSTY WINDS THIS AM.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER FROPA. THINGS SHOULD BE DRY IN
MOST PLACES AFTER NOON...AND MAY EVEN GET PT SUNNY...BUT WILL
HOLD CHC SHRA IN NW/NRN TIER FOR COLD- ADVECTIVE LAKE-EFFECT SHRA.

WINDS SLACKEN FAST TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT...TOO - EXCEPT PERHAPS VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKE SHORE
AND NWRN MTS. THAT SLIM POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS MAY NOT BE ENUF TO
KEEP THE TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF THE TABLE...AND GETTING CLOSE TO
FREEZING IN MOST NRN AREAS FRI AM. THUS...WILL ISSUE FROST
ADVISORY FOR CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S (OR COLDER?). FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NORTH OF
I-80...BUT SOME OTHER PLACES/VALLEYS (IN THE LAURELS AND SCENT
COS) COULD GET INTO MID 30S...SO WILL WORD FOR PATCHY FROST
THERE.

QUIET AND NICE/CLIMO FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO CHANGES HERE...AS DRY AND WARMER-THAN-NORMAL PATTERN SETS UP.
QUICK SLAP FROM THIS TROF WILL BE A BAD MEMORY AS THOSE LOWER THAN
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAST-REPLACED BY A HUGE AREA OF POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER NOAM - WITH +2.25 STDV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER MAINE
BY DAY4. NO CHANCE FOR RAIN EXISTS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

AVIATION...
DEEPENING LOW WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
LLWS LIKELY EARLY...MAINLY IN SPOTS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
STILL FAIRLY LIGHT.

MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SOME MVFR IN AREAS OF CU AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

POCKETS OF MVFR LATER THIS AM AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG TODAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY...GIVEN COLD
ADVECTION...FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS...STILL DECENT HEATING BY THE
SUN...AND WINDS ALOFT. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH LIKELY...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

HEIGHTS COME UP FAST LATER TODAY...THUS WINDS AND SC WILL DIE OFF
FAIRLY FAST. PRIOR TO THIS...SOME HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
LIKELY...MAINLY N PA...AS LAKES ARE STILL QUITE WARM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-
042 UNTIL 11 AM THURSDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PAZ004>006-037 UNTIL 9 AM
THURSDAY.
FROST ADVISORY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-041-042 FROM
2 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...DANGELO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
639 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2005

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-291045-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
639 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
234 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>026-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
291245-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
234 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...AND GUSTY WINDS.

THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY TURN
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...AND WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AS THE
FRONT PASSES. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ON THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

WINDS LIKE THIS CAN KNOCK DOWN SMALL BRANCHES AND TWIGS. THEY CAN
ALSO MAKE CONTROLLING A HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLE DIFFICULT. USE CARE
IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING THIS MORNING.

DANGELO