Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1029 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKING GOOD AS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STAYING NORTH OF PA. VISIBALITIES ARE A BIT SLOW TO RISE DUE TO
WIDESPREAD HAZE AND FOG...BUT AS TEMPS RISE THIS WILL BE LESS OF A
PROBLEM. EXPECT AREA OF PRECIP TO MOVE EAST AS AFTERNOON WEARS
ON...THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING WILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS OVER
NOTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. MIDNIGHT SHIFT POPS AND WX COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK SO NO NEED TO EDIT. WORDING OF ZONES
ALSO COVERS THE SITUATION WELL SO NO UPDATE NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 336 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR MASON/DIXON LINE
WL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD TODAY...AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE SYSTEM IN
THE GREAT LAKES. INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS WELL AS SFC CONVERGENCE OVER WRN PA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST AREAS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN TIER...WHERE SPC HAS
PLACED SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. PWATS 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL
NORTHERN HALF OF PA TODAY...LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINERS AND
INCREASING PRECIP LOADING/POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS.

LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHEARING SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT LIKE THURSDAYS WILL SIMILARLY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
AREA LEAVING HIGH DEWPOINTS AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. LAYER PWATS EXCEED 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ARE 2-3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL...SO ONCE AGAIN HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL BE THERE AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN
ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL OVER OR JUST WEST OF
THE AREA AS UNYIELDING 595 DM 5H RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF
BERMUDA. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED IS WHETHER IRENE AND HER
REMANTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTION AND ENSEMBLES DEPICTING A
SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF ZONAL FLOW REACH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...THINK THE TPC TRACK CURVING IRENE NORTHWARD WELL EAST OF
MY AREA IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD RIGHT NOW...SO IF I HAD TO HEDGE A
BET ID GUESS THAT WE WOULD BE MISSED BY IRENES CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER... WELL ALREADY HAVE 2 PWATS IN OUR MIDST...SO EITHER
WITH OUR WITHOUT IRENE WELL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

AVIATION...
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
MVFR VIS IN HAZE/FOG OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONLY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT PAST SUNRISE WITH UPPER MVFR THRESHOLD VISIBILITIES IN
HAZE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN
THE IFR CATEGORY LOCALLY BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG PA/NY BORDER LATE IN THE
PD WILL INCREASE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW TERMINALS
BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCT AT BEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ONDREJIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
503 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-130902-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
503 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

PAZ004-121845-
WARREN-
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WARREN COUNTY...

AT 137 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WARREN...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR WARREN AROUND 150 PM...CLARENDON
AROUND 155 PM AND KINZUA DAM AROUND 200 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FORECASTER:ONDREJIK