Tornado Warning 36, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
300 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2005

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TROPICAL AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  NOTHING SEVERE AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.  WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE WEAK TROF AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE.  FLOW AROUND THESE FEATURES IS MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.  CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...THEN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW SIMILAR TO TODAY.  WEAK WIND FIELDS AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS GOING THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.  WILL HAVE 60-70 POP CONFIG FOR
TOMORROW...AND ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT...AREAL
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE HIGH POPS.  WITH SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  SOME DRIER AIR IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST TX
AND SOME OF THIS MAY WORK DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER
TOMORROW EVENING ENDING RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE EARLIER.  TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DRYING OUT BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.  WILL HANG ON TO ISOLATED CONVECTION ON
MONDAY ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE AS MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TUE
AND WED AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GENERAL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA BUT THINK THAT THE GFS IS A BIT OVER-ZEALOUS IN THE AMOUNT OF
DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE.  WILL KEEP DEWPOINT GRIDS HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THIS REASONING.  WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MID/LATE WEEK.  UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AT
THIS TIME.  NONETHELESS...WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
INCREASE AND H5 RIDGE SLIDES A BIT FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

CORPUS CHRISTI  74 92 74 94 73 / 30 70 30 40 10
VICTORIA        74 93 72 95 71 / 30 60 30 30 10
LAREDO          79 96 77 97 75 / 50 50 40 50 30
ALICE           74 94 73 95 71 / 30 70 40 50 20
ROCKPORT        77 92 77 92 75 / 30 70 30 40 10
COTULLA         75 95 74 96 72 / 50 50 40 40 20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

91/DUNN...SHORT-TERM
94/JOHNSON...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
511 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2005

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-031015-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
511 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND AGAIN TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO SEVERAL INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.